Is It Time To Unload Your Investment Properties?

If you're one of the many American investors who snatched up homes in the booming real-estate market, now might be the time to sell, according to Jim Keene, co-author of 'Retire on the House.'
By: Andrea Coombes: The Wall Street Journal Online
If you're one of the many Americans who snatched up homes as investment properties in the booming real estate market, now might be the time to sell, according to Jim Keene, co-author of "Retire on the House."

"I'd say sell some of those excess properties, particularly in some of these more volatile up-and-down markets," Keene said in an interview with MarketWatch.

Keene, a chartered financial analyst, is also a regional manager with Wells Fargo's private client services, in Walnut Creek, Calif.

Of course, any real-estate discussion requires a nod to locale: Where you're buying a home makes a difference. But it also matters which part of the market you're looking at, the upper bracket or the low side.

Higher-end homes are likelier to see prices easing while lower-priced homes in less-volatile areas may still enjoy some gains, Keene said.

"I take a look at the market in two segments. The pricing point for the segment depends on where you are in the country," Keene said.

"In the lower-price market, definitely you'll still see some [home-price] increases, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, maybe even 10%, 11% in places like Sacramento," he said.

"But in San Diego, Los Angeles, Boston [price gains] might be more like 2%, 3%," he said.

Meanwhile, "the higher-priced market, say above $1 million in a place like Washington, D.C., you'll start to see some drops in some prices."

The more volatile markets include both coasts, Keene said, from Florida to Boston, and San Francisco to Los Angeles and San Diego.

"If you're in those markets and you have multiple homes, sell some of the excess homes. You don't need the risk particularly and the outlook is not as good," he said.

"You have costs to carry the home, and so you're relying on appreciation for your return. That's going to moderate, at best, going forward, if not, in some specific situations, go down a little bit," he said.

Keene's outlook for the housing market mirrors the predictions of other industry experts: The double-digit home price gains enjoyed by homeowners and investors in recent years are likely to ease this year.

Fannie Mae, the mortgage agency, predicts home sales will drop 5% to 10%, while the National Association of Home Builders points to an average 6.5% home-price gain this year, down from a double-digit gain of about 11% in 2005.

Reconsider real-estate investing

Meanwhile, those who are interested in getting into real estate as an investment may want to reconsider, he said.

"If you're going to buy a single family home as an investment property in which you have mortgage payments, property taxes, insurance and maintenance, in most places in the country your rental income will not overcome the costs," Keene said.

"You're relying on the appreciation and it's not necessarily a good time to invest. Take a look at some other types of investments to invest some of your excess equity," he said.

Plus, don't forget that selling a real estate investment is no free lunch: The cost of selling a home is significant, Keene said.

"I'm closing on a home in Oakland on Friday. Closing costs will be 7.5% to 8% of the actual purchase price for the seller ... that's significant," he said.

Investment, or home?

Buying investment property is not the same as purchasing a home in which you intend to live long-term. Keene's own impending purchase is driven largely by a desire to live in the home, he said.

"I happen to want a bigger home to live in [and] my dream home ... came up," he said. "I will live there long-term."

As well as staying there long-term, Keene noted that the home's sale price is right. "I don't feel like it's a very high-end home. It's a medium-price-plus-some for my area [and] it's in a part of the market that will still say reasonable in terms of increases over the next few years, so I didn't feel there was a huge downside risk" in buying now.

For those who won't need to sell in the next couple of years, buying investment property may still prove worthwhile, even now.

"If you're looking at a seven-year time frame, then go buy away," Keene said.