Don't Like the Market? Look Again.

There are a few clouds on the real estate market, but savvy consumers can turn even a slowing market to their advantage.
By: Al Heavens: Realty Times
It's never easy to be the messenger of not-so-good news, but it apparently has fallen upon "the media" to bear the bad tidings of the slowing market and all that it entails.

A business writer I know produced an exceptionally even-handed piece on the most recent Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight report showing home prices increasing in the second quarter at a 4.7 percent annual rate, "the slowest since the fourth quarter of 1999."

The next day, a Realtor accused the writer of filling the newspaper with negativity and threatened to pull advertising - an idle threat, since brokerages and builders tend to increase advertising in markets in which houses aren't selling themselves.

Advertising, in fact, is one of the methods sellers use to gauge whether the listing agent is doing his or her job. But that is a topic for another time.

Considering that most of this bad news is based on statistics compiled by the National Association of Realtors, Commerce Department, National Association of Home Builders, Fannie and Freddie and a host of governmental numbers-crunchers, maybe brokers and builders should complain directly to them.

A builder I know recently suggested that the more often economists and government analysts went on TV to announce that it was now a "buyers' market," the faster it would become a seller's market again.

Look. Because it is a buyer's market, the Realtor's other mantra, "Now is the time to buy," doesn't sound as much like hyperbole.

Now is the time to buy, because there's a lot on the market, fixed interest rates Sept. 7 were 6.47 percent and one-year Treasury-indexed ARMs just 5.63 percent, and when you consider that fixed rates when I bought my first house were at 18 percent, you'd be foolish not to.

In addition, there are a lot of mortgage products that will provide the first-time buyer with even lower rates and costs, if they shop around. Even in the 18 percent days, I was able to find a 13.5 percent fixed rate. With more houses on the market and less competition, buyers can take a little more time.

The media focusing attention on higher rates and slower sales surely frightens those easily spooked by a few negative numbers, but most aren't complaining about the media's attention.

I take my show on the road on occasion, and at a seminar in Orlando a few weeks ago, I asked the audience of builders if they had any complaints about the media.

One builder's hand shot up.

"A reporter from my local newspaper called and asked how new-home sales were, and I told her that they were slower than last year, but still brisk," he said. "The headline and the article the next day made it sound as if I was headed into bankruptcy."

Again, not everyone involved the production of that real estate article knows the intricacies of the business so there is margin for error. You should try explaining annualized rates or why we compare year to year rather than month to month sales and price statistics to the uninitiated.

I don't know how long what is euphemistically referred to as the "normal" market will last. Personal and professional experience tell me that it will change eventually; I remember the late 1980s and the mid-1990s and the surprise bump-up in interest rates in 1999 because of the Thai bat and the post-9/11 fears that never materialized - so we just need to hang in and not panic.

What you should expect from the media is a blend of statistically based news and information on how to deal with the market those numbers are reflecting.

For example, if it is a buyer's market, tell buyers how to take advantage of it - negotiate, take your time, get an inspection, shop around for the best mortgage rate.

Then let sellers in on the information they need to cope - get a pre-inspection to anticipate problems, look at your neighbors' houses and try to make yours better, or offer reasonable incentives or allowances to attract interest.

If you want to invest in real estate, forgo flipping and consider the long-term, such as REITs that are consistent income producers (some did better than stocks at the height of the market).

If you want property, buy a condo that is lingering on the market and rent it until median prices return to their dizzying climb. The focus on condo construction and conversions have reduced inventory of rental property in many urban markets, and that's the situation you want to take advantage of until circumstances change.

They always do.