The Year of Listing Patiently; Sales Are Slow for Pricey Homes

Last year proved to be a tough one to sell a house, and the high end of the market wasn't immune. A look back at those featured in 'House of the Week' finds that only 30% have sold - and most at steep discounts.
By: Ben Casselman: The Wall Street Journal Online
Last year proved to be a tough one to sell a house. In many parts of the country, sales were down, inventories were up and homes lingered longer on the market. In August, the median price of an existing single-family home fell 1.7% compared with a year earlier, the first year-to-year price decline in more than a decade, and prices continued to fall for the remainder of 2006, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The high end of the market wasn't immune, either, as evidenced by the lackluster sales of the homes highlighted in Weekend Journal's "House of the Week." Of the 46 houses featured between October 2005 and September 2006, only 14 have sold, most at steep discounts -- an average of 16% below the asking price published in our column; another four are in contract. Timing was also critical: Only one house featured since June has found a buyer. (None of those featured in the fourth quarter of 2006 have sold, but they aren't included in this survey because most have only recently come on the market.)

Homes featured in House of the Week aren't representative of the national housing market. For one thing, they tend to be high-end properties: the average asking price for the homes in our sample was nearly $10 million, while only one asked less than $1 million. They are also selected for other qualities - noteworthy architecture, colorful histories or singular locations - that set them apart even from other luxury homes.

House of the Week

See a photo slide show of this week's House of the Week.
Still, their sales performance has generally followed national patterns. Overall sales volume peaked in mid 2005 and then declined steadily throughout most of 2006, according to the National Association of Realtors, and existing home sales in November 2006 were down 11% compared with the previous year. The same held true for the Houses of the Week. Of the 23 properties featured from October 2005 through March 2006 - when the overall market was relatively strong - 12 have sold or are in contract, compared with just six of those featured during the following six months.

The properties that were most likely to find a buyer were those with the highest price tags. Half of the Houses of the Week with asking prices of $15 million or more have sold, versus just over a quarter of those asking less than $15 million. That, too, follows a national trend, according to Jonathan Miller, president of the New York appraisal firm Miller Samuel. "Super luxury" homes have continued to sell in high numbers, he says, though not necessarily close to their asking prices. In fact, one reason they tend to sell, Mr. Miller says, is because their owners can be more flexible; these deals don't live or die over a $5 million difference. And unlike the general housing market, which is strongly affected by interest-rate fluctuations, upscale home sales tend to be more sensitive to the stock market and the overall economy because buyers are more likely to pay in cash.

San Lee, the owner of a 10,000-square-foot waterfront mansion in Palm Beach, where the market remains healthy, actually raised her asking price recently, to $22 million from $18.5 million. That builds in room to negotiate, says listing agent Wallace Turner of Sotheby's International Realty. At the same time, "the buyers feel that they're getting a value, even though we're settling it at about the same price in the end," Mr. Turner says.

Most sellers, however, moved in the opposite direction. About half of the House of the Week properties still on the market have had a price cut since they appeared in the column, in one case by 35%. Others have been taken off the market entirely, although many sellers say they will try again when the market improves. It may be a while, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com. "There's still a lot of oversupply," even at the high end, he says. "I think the correction really has a year left to run."

Here's a sampling of four Houses of the Week in different parts of the country.

SOLD: Southern California oceanfront contemporary, for $27 million.

This 3,544-square-foot home in Carpinteria, about 12 miles south of Santa Barbara, sold for 77% of its $35 million asking price, but Charlene and Sherrill Broudy say that's still far more than they expected before they put it on the market in the spring. The asking price was "a shot in the dark," Ms. Broudy says. The value in the 1.7-acre property lay primarily in its seaside location - with 150 feet of beachfront - rather than the house itself - a four-bedroom home built in 1980 (which Ms. Broudy says needed work). Listing agent Kathleen St. James of Sotheby's International Realty moved into the house while the owners were away in Costa Rica and cleaned it up, a project that included pressure-washing and oiling its redwood exterior. The May 5 "House of the Week" sold in 60 days. The buyer, local venture capitalist Brian Kelly, saw the property in its first week on the market, before Ms. St. James's cleaning job, and submitted the only serious bid. "You don't have that many people calling you up to spend that kind of money," Ms. St. James says. "Sometimes you get lucky."

AVAILABLE: 319-acre Montana ranch on the Yellowstone River. Asking $13.5 million.

Dan and Barbara Todd recently cut 10% off the $15 million price of their ranch in Livingston, about 26 miles southeast of Bozeman, after it had been listed for about a year. Mr. Todd says the price cut was a response to a softening market -- Montana ranch sales volume is down from last year, though prices have continued to rise -- and to signal that he is ready to make a deal. The property includes a recently built six-bedroom, 6,400-square-foot main house, a guest cottage and a one-bedroom barn/artist studio.

This is the eighth ranch that the Todds have bought and sold, but the first that is primarily recreational, not agricultural. "When I show the property, I don't know whether someone wants to shoot a deer or look at it," Mr. Todd says. He isn't concerned that the house, which was featured on March 17, has yet to attract a buyer. Listing agent David Johnson of Hall & Hall says ranches usually stay on the market at least a year.

SOLD: Connecticut midcentury modern with pedigree, for $3.75 million.

This Philip Johnson-designed house in New Canaan went into contract within four months of being listed, albeit at a 12% reduction, from $4.25 million. The sale closed in just six months. Meanwhile, sales volume in Fairfield County, Conn., was down nearly 15% in the first three quarters of 2006 compared with the same period in 2005. Listing agent Susan E. Blabey of William Pitt Sotheby's International Realty attributes the modern home's speedy sale to its being "100% pure Philip Johnson," practically unchanged since the award-winning architect designed it in 1950. Not that there weren't challenges to overcome, including strict preservation easements that protected the land, the house and even some of the interior features. The "House of the Week" for June 9, had also been vacant two years and needed work.

But Craig Bassam and Scott Fellows knew what they were getting into. The buyers run the design firm BassamFellows and also own another vintage modern in New Canaan, which they're selling.

AVAILABLE: Low Country home on a South Carolina island. Asking $1.95 million.

This four-bedroom, nearly 5,000-square-foot home on Daufuskie Island, a second-home area about a mile from Hilton Head Island, came on the market in July 2005, just missing the area's primary selling season. Interest picked up the following spring, says listing agent Catherine Donaldson of Cora Bett Thomas Realty, but then the market hit a severe slump in the summer. (The home was featured on June 16, 2006.) The owners - Detroit Red Wings center Robert Lang and his wife, Jennifer - cut the price in August, but by then it was too late, Donaldson says. She adds that the 21% cut has generated interest, but mostly low-ball offers. "When you drop a price that much, you give the impression that it's a fire sale, and it's not." It doesn't help that Daufuskie Island is accessible only by water. "It is tough to sell a home on an island you can only get to by boat," she says.