The Brighter Side of Housing

The housing bust is helping some people buy homes that they couldn't afford a couple of years ago. The Journal's quarterly survey of housing-market conditions in 28 major metro areas points to continued downward pressure on prices in much of the country.
By: JAMES R. HAGERTY: WSJ.com
Amid Downturn, 'Unaffordable' Is Within Reach.

And now for the heartwarming side of the housing bust: It's helping some people buy homes that they couldn't afford a couple of years ago.

Michelle Dudley for years commuted 50 miles each way to her job as a civil servant in Anaheim, Calif., because she and her husband, Don, didn't feel they could afford a home near her office. This week, though, the Dudleys moved into a three-bedroom house in Anaheim that they recently bought for $390,000, down from the original listing price of $445,000 in November. Similar homes in the area were selling for as much as about $600,000 two years ago, says Erin Eckert, an agent for Redfin, an online real-estate brokerage that represented the Dudleys.

Still, many potential buyers are holding out for better deals. The Wall Street Journal's quarterly survey of housing-market conditions in 28 major metro areas points to continued downward pressure on prices in much of the country.

As usual, there is huge variation from town to town. In most of the country, inventories of unsold homes are no longer growing quickly, as they did in 2006 and 2007, but remain huge. The supply has shrunk modestly in Boston and Denver over the past year. But the number of for-sale signs continues to rise swiftly in the Portland, Ore.; Seattle; Raleigh-Durham, N.C.; San Francisco; and Washington areas.

The biggest gluts are in Florida. In the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area, the supply of single-family homes and condominiums is enough to last 34 months at the average sales rate of the past year. That months-supply figure is about 21 in Orlando, 18 in Tampa and Las Vegas, 17 in Detroit and 14 in Phoenix. A six-month inventory is generally considered a rough balance between supply and demand.

For condos alone in Miami-Dade County, the supply would last 45 months at the current sales rate.

Prices are coming down fast. Real-estate data company Zillow.com estimates that the median value for all homes in the 12 months ended March 31 fell 25% in the Las Vegas metro area, 19% in Miami and Orlando, and 16% in Phoenix. The typical value is still rising modestly in a few places, including the metro areas of Raleigh and Charlotte, N.C., Dallas and Houston. One hitch for house hunters, though, is that mortgage lenders have become much more restrictive with loans. And even buyers who can get financing still face a tricky question: Should I wait for a lower price? Buying now, with home prices generally falling, is "a gamble," says Ms. Dudley, who just moved into her new Anaheim home. But, she says, home prices will rise again at some point. Meanwhile, she was tired of her long, expensive commute.

Kevin McCleary, a computer-security consultant, remained a renter through the housing boom even though he could afford to buy, because he believed prices were reaching unsustainable levels. In October, though, he and his fiancée finally decided to buy a foreclosed home in Herndon, Va., and negotiated a price of about $443,000. The same home sold in 2005 for $645,000. "I don't believe we hit it at the perfect time," Mr. McCleary says. On the other hand, he says, "we were just tired of putting our lives on hold."

During the boom, home prices rose far faster than incomes. Home prices as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller national index shot up 74% in the six years through 2006, while median household income rose 15%. (Neither figure is adjusted for inflation.) Now prices in many areas are adjusting back toward more affordable levels, a process that could take several years.

In an analysis of 330 metro areas in last year's fourth quarter, National City Corp., a banking concern, and Global Insight, an economic research firm, found that home prices were sharply overvalued in relation to household income and other factors in 21 metro areas, down from a peak of 58 metro areas in the second quarter of 2006.

Economists at the two firms look at home prices in relation to household income and other variables, including population density (an indication of how much land is available) and past differences in prices caused by factors like climate and schools. They then classify as "overvalued" metro areas where home prices are more than 33% above a level that could be explained by fundamental drivers of housing costs. Among areas where this analysis finds that home prices are still too high are Bend, Ore., Atlantic City, N.J., Miami, Honolulu and Portland, Ore.

In most of the country, "we're getting a return to normalcy" in the relation between home prices and incomes, says Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City. But, he adds, prices may overshoot on the down side.

Economists at Goldman Sachs say home prices are likely to level off by late 2009. They also point to improving affordability. Goldman's chief U.S. economist, Jan Hatzius, says the share of a typical family's income needed to pay mortgage payments on a median-priced home averaged about 17.5% from 1993 to 2003, before jumping to 26% in 2006. The figure now has fallen to 20% and is likely to keep declining as home prices fall.

Mr. Hatzius estimates that average U.S. home prices have fallen 15% since the second quarter of 2006 and projects they will fall an additional 10% before stabilizing late next year. But he also sees a risk that home prices will fall further, particularly if the foreclosure problem proves worse than already expected.

Goldman estimates that foreclosures will add 1 million to 1.5 million homes to the for-sale market this year, compared with less than half a million a year before 2007.

During the first quarter, homes acquired by lenders through foreclosure accounted for 33% of all sales of previously occupied homes in California, up from just 3.2% a year earlier, according to DataQuick Information Systems, a research firm in La Jolla, Calif.

Homeowners hoping to avoid a foreclosure are adding to downward pressure on the market, says Daniel R. Odio, owner of DROdio Real Estate Inc. in Alexandria, Va. Such people often seek to unload their homes through a "short sale," in which the price is less than the amount owed on the mortgage and the lender agrees to forgive the difference. Homeowners hoping to do a short sale sometimes advertise very low asking prices to lure buyers, even if there is little chance the lender would accept bids at that level, Mr. Odio says. The "fictional" asking price, in turn, misleads potential buyers about the value of nearby homes.

The supply of lower-priced homes has surged in some areas. Steven Thomas, president of Re/Max Real Estate Services in Aliso Viejo, Calif., says there are about 1,260 condos available for under $250,000 in Orange County, Calif., or about triple the year-earlier total.