Home Buyers, Start Your Engines

The latest data on the housing market shows that prices are falling at last. If you're thinking of buying, now's the time to look.
By: BRETT ARENDS: WSJ.com
If you were thinking of buying a home, start looking.

The latest data from the housing market shows that sellers, after months and years in denial, are finally giving in to reality and slashing prices.

There is a distance still to go. There may even be a lot to go. But the process, long delayed, is now well underway.

The National Association of Realtors on Tuesday released its long-awaited report on prices from the first quarter. The price drops were startling.

In many of the former hot spots, from Florida to Nevada to the Californian "Inland Empire," single-family home prices plunged by 20% to nearly 30% in a year.

Even more remarkable was how far prices had fallen just from the previous three months. In greater Las Vegas, for example, single-family home prices are down about 20% compared to the first quarter of 2007… and about 9% compared to last fall. In certain parts of California, the quarter-on-quarter declines are more than 10%. And there are similar pictures from Boston, Mass., to Tucson, Ariz., to, well, lots of places in Florida.

Nationwide, the decline from the previous quarter was about 5%, says the NAR.

And this, ultimately, is good news. We know prices have to fall. The sooner it happens, the quicker the market can clear.

We may not be at that stage known on Wall Street as "capitulation," but there is more than a whiff of it in the air.

Far too many people in the real estate market have spent far too long insisting that denial is just a river in Egypt. They refused to accept there was a bubble on the way up, and refused to admit it even on the way back down. (There's a few still out there: Last week I got an angry email from a broker who blamed the whole slump on "the media".)

It is simply remarkable how slow this bubble has been to deflate. That, bluntly, is part of the problem.

In the Las Vegas area, for example, NAR data shows single home prices peaked in early 2006. Yet by the middle of last year, when everyone and their Aunt Sally already knew we were deep into the biggest housing bust since the Great Depression, prices had only been cut by around 4%.

No wonder sales volumes collapsed and the number of unsold homes skyrocketed.

You can imagine what fantasies the sellers were clinging to. "Well, two years ago this home was worth half a million bucks."

The problem: So what? It doesn't matter what prices were three or two years ago. We were in a bubble. Market psychologists call this "anchoring", because people anchor their expectations to the past, and it's a fallacy.

Just five years ago, the same home sold for $270,000 and 10 years ago just $200,000. Are those relevant anchor points too?

Fact: Even though Las Vegas single family home prices are down about a quarter from their peak, NAR data shows they are still nearly 45% above their levels in early 2003.

The picture is similar in other former hot spots.

It remains to be seen how much further prices have to fall.

As always, quality and scarcity command a premium. But remember that a burst bubble is still a burst bubble and everything is affected.

Cisco Systems is a top quality technology company with real profits, but its shares still fell about 80% in the dotcom crash.

There is no desperate rush to buy real estate. (The best way to play the real estate crash was to buy the homebuilding stocks when they bottomed out in January, as written in this column at the time.)

But sellers have at least returned to the bargaining table. If you are in the market for a home, it is time, cautiously, to take a look and, maybe, see if you can play, "Let's Make A Deal."