U.S. Housing May Be Turning Around, Shiller Says (Update1)

An improvement in home prices suggests the U.S. property market may be recovering, said Robert Shiller, a professor of economics at Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut.
By: Vincent Del Giudice: Bloomberg.com
“We might be seeing a turnaround,” Shiller said today in an interview on Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg Television. “I say ‘might’ because there’s still a pretty weak economy out there.”

Shiller is co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index, which fell 15.4 percent in June from a year earlier, the smallest decline since April 2008. On a month-over-month basis, the index rose by the most in four years. The report was issued yesterday.

The month-over-month increase in home prices is “quite striking,” Shiller said. “The sense that something is changing is definitely in the air.”

Speaking about the broader economy, “recessions are generally ‘V’ shaped,” Shiller said. “Probably something like that will happen again,” even though a “disappointing recovery” is possible, he said.

The longest economic contraction since the end of World War II has claimed 6.7 million jobs since December 2007. Stocks are “a tad overpriced by historical standards,” Shiller said. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has surged about 51 percent from a 12-year low on March 9.
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Positive Signs: Home Prices on an Upswing in Second Quarter 2009

Data through June 2009, released by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the U.S. National Home Price Index improved in the second quarter of 2009.
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The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index- which covers all nine U.S. census divisions- recorded a 14.9% decline in the 2nd quarter of 2009 versus the 2nd quarter of 2008. While still a substantial negative annual rate of return, this is an improvement over the record decline of 19.1% reported in the 1st quarter of the year. The 10-City and 20-City Composites recorded annual declines of 15.1% and 15.4%, respectively. These are also improvements from their recent respective record losses of -19.4% and -19.1%.

“For the second month in a row, we’re seeing some positive signs,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “The U.S. National Composite rose in the 2nd quarter compared to the 1st quarter of 2009. This is the first time we have seen a positive quarter-over-quarter print in three years. Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted monthly increases, as did most of the cities. As seen in both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted data, there are hints of an upward turn from a bottom. However, some of the hardest hit cities, especially in the Sun Belt, show continued weakness.”

As of the 2nd quarter of 2009, average home prices across the United States are at similar levels to what they were in early 2003. From the peak in the second quarter of 2006, average home prices are down 30.2%.

The 10-City and 20-City Composites posted their second consecutive monthly increases. Both indices were up 1.4% in June over May, and up 0.5% in May over April. Eighteen of the 20 metro areas saw improvement in their annual returns compared to those of May. Looking at the monthly data, the same 18 metro areas reported positive returns in June.

In spite of the recent positive data, the overall numbers remain weak, with all metro areas and the two composites posting negative annual returns, and 15 out of the 20 metro areas reporting double digit annual declines. While not alone, Las Vegas and Detroit continue to be two markets that are struggling severely. These are the only two markets that fell in June and saw deterioration in their annual rates of return. Since their relative peaks they have fallen 54.3% and 45.3%, respectively.

More upbeat news is seen in the monthly data across other markets; Dallas and Denver have reported four consecutive months of positive returns. In addition to the two composites, 13 of the MSAs reported positive monthly returns for June that were greater than +1.0%.

The table below summarizes the results for June 2009. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the 24 prior months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

2009 Q2 2009 Q2/2009 Q1 2009 Q1/2008 Q4 1-Year
Level Change (%) Change (%) Change (%)
U.S. National
Index 132.64 2.9% -7.4% -14.9%
June 2009 June/May May/April 1-Year
Metropolitan Level Change (%) Change (%) Change (%)
Area
Atlanta 107.52 1.5% 0.5% -13.7%
Boston 152.71 2.6% 1.6% -5.9%
Charlotte 120.66 0.7% 0.9% -9.6%
Chicago 124.99 1.1% 1.1% -16.7%
Cleveland 106.38 4.2% 4.1% -3.0%
Dallas 119.68 2.7% 1.9% -2.2%
Denver 126.92 2.5% 1.3% -3.6%
Detroit 69.49 -0.8% 0.2% -25.0%
Las Vegas 107.31 -2.0% -2.6% -32.4%
Los Angeles 160.90 1.1% -0.1% -17.8%
Miami 145.37 0.5% -0.8% -23.4%
Minneapolis 113.48 3.1% 1.1% -19.8%
New York 171.49 0.4% 0.2% -11.9%
Phoenix 104.73 1.1% -0.9% -31.6%
Portland 148.47 1.0% 0.1% -15.2%
San Diego 147.31 1.6% 0.4% -16.0%
San Francisco 124.70 3.8% 1.4% -22.0%
Seattle 149.53 0.4% -0.3% -16.1%
Tampa 140.90 0.4% 0.0% -19.5%
Washington 174.32 2.8% 1.3% -11.8%
Composite-10 153.20 1.4% 0.5% -15.1%
Composite-20 141.86 1.4% 0.5% -15.4%
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.California Existing-Home Sales Up 12% in July

Sales of existing single-family homes in California increased 12% in July from the same time a year ago, as the state’s median price rose for the fifth straight month.
By: Jim Carlton: WSJ.com
Sales increased to 553,910 on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis from a revised sales pace of 494,390 in July 2008, according to a report released Tuesday by the California Association of Realtors. The inventory of unsold houses continued to drop, to 3.9 months supply in July from 6.9 months at the same time a year ago.

Median prices were off 19.6% from July 2008 to $285,480, but were up 3.9% from June—continuing a string of back-to-back sequential price increases that began in March. Officials with the Realtors’ group credited first-time buyers for much of the buying volume, helping the under-$500,000 segment of the market to jump to include 74% of statewide sales from 43% when the California housing market went into a slump two years ago.

Few experts say California’s housing market is out of the woods, though. One threat is the prospect of more foreclosures flooding the market, as the state struggles with an unemployment rate of 11.9% as of July.

And Realtors’ officials say they are concerned sales have become overly tied to first-time buyers and a federal tax credit they have used for their purchases. Indeed, James Liptak, president of the association, said nearly 40% of first-time buyers said they would not have purchased a home without the tax credit, and called for Congress to extend it beyond a Dec. 1 deadline as well as open it up to all buyers, not just first-timers.

Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist of the association, said the high end of the California market remains soft with weak sales and prices as credit remains tight for jumbo loans.
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Start house-hunting now to qualify for tax credit for first-time home buyers

First-time home buyers had better get a move on if they hope to take advantage of the $8,000 federal tax credit.
By: Lew Sichelman: latimes.com
The window of opportunity is closing rapidly.

To qualify for the credit, any transaction involving a first-time buyer must close before midnight Nov. 30, when the valuable tax benefit expires. And because the buying and lending processes can be slow, you're going to need every bit of that time to close escrow.

Although the end of November might seem a long way off, Diane Dilzell, president of the New Jersey Assn. of Realtors, rightly points out that it takes weeks, if not months, to manage the logistics involved in a real estate transaction. It's also important to realize that any of a number of things can go haywire along the way.

"Unique circumstances can be encountered in any transaction, so it is important to account for those factors," said Dilzell, a broker at Pinnacle Realtors in Bedminster, N.J. "Since numerous third parties are involved, delays can be expected no matter how swiftly you act."

Another complicating factor: closed offices during the Thanksgiving holiday. With Thanksgiving this year falling on Nov. 26, that removes four days right before the deadline.

Undoubtedly, some escrow agents will scrap vacation plans to handle what is expected to be a crush of settlements. But that highlights yet another potential pitfall: There may be so many buyers trying to close at the last minute that there might not be enough room for them all.

Moreover, if you're banking on Congress to extend the tax credit or possibly even expand it, the odds are against you, at least right now.

Even though there's always a chance that lawmakers will do the unexpected, House and Senate leaders have said they will not take up any expiring provisions until they have completed work on healthcare-reform legislation. Moreover, with many signs indicating that the moribund market is starting to awaken, many legislators might decide that housing no longer needs a shot in the arm.

And don't expect to sneak a Dec. 1 closing past the Internal Revenue Service either. That's fraud, and the nation's tax collector has any number of sophisticated screening tools to quickly identify returns that may contain fraudulent claims.

What's more, the IRS has vowed to go after taxpayers who try to pull a fast one. "We will vigorously pursue anyone who falsely tries to claim this or any other tax credit or deduction," says Eileen Mayer, the agency's chief criminal investigator.

Buyers with specific questions about the tax credit should consult with a qualified tax advisor. But here's a brief rundown of the rules.

A first-timer is defined as anyone who has not owned a principal residence during the three years immediately before the purchase. The house doesn't qualify for the credit, though, if the buyer sells it before the end of the year.

Vacation homes and investment properties do not qualify; only main residences, new or resale, which can be a single-family house, town house, condominium, manufactured (or mobile) home or even a houseboat. If you hire a contractor to build the house rather than buy from a builder, the house is still treated as having been purchased.

Purchases must be arm's-length transactions. The seller cannot be a parent, grandparent, child, grandchild or spouse. Legal residents who file U.S. tax returns qualify for the credit, but those who are undocumented immigrants or nonresidents do not.

Married people filing as such cannot claim the credit if either spouse has owned a main residence within the last three years, but unmarried joint purchasers - say, a parent and his son - may allocate the credit in any way they see fit as long as it does not exceed the $8,000 maximum.

Speaking of maximum, the tax credit is equal to 10% of the purchase price up to $8,000. But there are income limits. For single taxpayers, the ceiling is $75,000; for married taxpayers filing jointly, it is $150,000. For those with modified adjusted gross incomes above those limits, the tax credit is reduced on a sliding-scale basis to zero when the income exceeds $95,000 for single payers and $170,000 for married payers.

To assist would-be buyers who need help with down-payment and closing costs, the government will allow those who finance their purchases with a federally insured loan to apply their anticipated credit immediately toward the transaction rather than waiting until they file their 2009 taxes to receive a refund.

Under guidelines announced by the Federal Housing Administration, nonprofits and FHA-approved lenders are permitted to make short-term loans to qualified borrowers in the amount they would otherwise receive as a refund.

The law permits taxpayers to treat purchases that take place this year as though they occurred on Dec. 31, 2008. You can apply the tax credit against your 2008 return if that will bring you the largest credit amount (depending on your modified adjusted gross income). To do so, you must file an amended return for 2008.
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Economists Call for Bernanke to Stay, Say Recession Is Over

Economists are nearly unanimous that Bernanke should be reappointed to another term as Fed chairman, while most said the recession has ended.
By: PHIL IZZO: WSJ.com
Economists are nearly unanimous that Ben Bernanke should be reappointed to another term as Federal Reserve chairman, and they said there is a 71% chance that President Barack Obama will ask him to stay on, according to a survey.

Meanwhile, the majority of the economists The Wall Street Journal surveyed during the past few days said the recession that began in December 2007 is now over. Battling the downturn defined most of Mr. Bernanke's term, which began in early 2006 and expires in January, and economists say his handling of the crisis has earned him four more years as Fed chief.

"He deserves a lot of credit for stabilizing the financial markets," said Joseph Carson of AllianceBernstein. "Confidence in recovery would be damaged if he was not reappointed."

The Journal surveyed 52 economists; 47 responded.

After months of uncertainty, economists are finally seeing a break in the clouds. Forecasts were revised upward for every period, with 27 economists saying the recession had ended and 11 seeing a trough this month or next. Gross domestic product in the third quarter is now expected to show 2.4% growth at a seasonally adjusted annual rate amid signs of life in the manufacturing sector, partly spurred by inventory adjustments and strong demand for the "cash for clunkers" car-rebate program.

A better-than-expected employment report for July, where employers cut 247,000 jobs and the jobless rate fell for the first time in 15 months, suggests the worst is over. The unemployment rate is still expected to rise to 9.9% by December, but economists forecast that the economy will shed far fewer jobs over the next 12 months than they had forecast last month.

Many of the economists said there is little to be gained by changing the Fed chairman, especially considering the massive task at hand for the central bank as the economy emerges from the recession.

"Continuity is critical as we emerge from this crisis. Otherwise we could slip back in again," said Diane Swonk of Mesirow Financial. "Bernanke is the best suited to undo what has been done when the time comes."

The Fed has taken unprecedented steps in an effort to avoid another Great Depression, and its exit strategy remains a key question. Some hints may emerge as the central bank's August policy meeting comes to an end Wednesday. The Fed's key policy-making tool, the federal-funds rate, isn't likely to change at this meeting or any time soon.

Only six economists expect the Fed to raise the federal-funds rate, now between 0% and 0.25%, this year. Most expect an increase at some point in 2010, but more than a quarter of respondents don't see the rate moving until 2011 or later.

"The exit strategy will be very, very slow and cautious," said John Silvia of Wells Fargo. "The Fed will unwind the balance sheet before they raise the fed funds rates."

The Fed's balance sheet - the total value of all its loans and securities holdings - had more than doubled during the course of the crisis to more than $2 trillion, as lending facilities expanded in an effort to unfreeze credit markets. But as markets get back to normal, demand already has begun to wane, and the balance sheet has started to shrink. Now the composition of the balance sheet has begun to shift to Treasurys, mortgage-backed securities and agency debt as the Fed moves through a $1.75 trillion program announced in March to bring down long-term interest rates.

The Fed is deciding at this week's meeting whether to let that program run its course and how best to communicate its intentions to markets.

Whatever the Fed decides, the economists expressed some confidence that the central bank will be dealing with how to manage a recovery, not another recession. They expect GDP growth to remain above 2% at an annualized rate through the first half of next year, and they put the chances at just 20% of a "double-dip" second downturn before 2010.

But some said a recovery could make Mr. Bernanke's road to reappointment more rocky. "Once it is perceived that the economy is on its way to recovery, it gives Obama the opportunity to put in his own person," Mr. Silvia said. "It could be like Great Britain at the end of World War II. 'Thank you for all the hard work, Mr. Churchill, but we're going to bring someone else in to handle the next phase.'" Former president George W. Bush appointed Mr. Bernanke to succeed the departing Alan Greenspan. Presidents appoint Fed chiefs to four-year terms, and there are no term limits. Mr. Bernanke's term expires Jan. 31.

Though the economists were overwhelmingly supportive of Mr. Bernanke, they don't think his tenure was without mistakes. A slow initial response to the credit squeeze and the decision to let Lehman Brothers fail were cited as the biggest errors.
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6 Real Estate Investment Basics

Miami real estate investor Kenneth D. Rosen outlines his “Big Six” investing guidelines in his new book, Investing in Income Properties.
By: Matthew Haggman: REALTOR®Magazine
Here are his six principles in a nutshell. He says all of them need to be present to make a deal worth doing. “If one’s not there, you stop and you don’t buy,” he says.

Location. “A” locations are in areas where there is little land left to build on and the neighborhood has a certain prestige.

No-frills design with quality construction. He looks for three or four parking spaces per 1,000 square feet, no more than 15 percent of space devoted to common areas, and simple but visually pleasing design.

Few or no vacancies. Buildings with lots of small offices are easier to keep full than those that rely on renting out entire floors to one tenant.

Potential for appreciation. Older buildings with lower rents have the most upside potential. As leases expire, the new owner can raise the rent.

Available financing. Find a financial pro to help negotiate the right provisions.

Sale price based on existing income. Avoid buying based on projected income.
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