Uncle Sam’s New Guide to Mortgage Shopping

My guess is that the typical American puts more thought into the search for a flat-screen TV than into the choice of a mortgage lender.
By: James R. Hagerty: WSJ.com
Shopping for a TV is fairly straightforward. You read reviews online or in Consumer Reports; you eyeball a few models in the store to see if the image looks sharp; then you buy from whichever merchant has the lowest price. If the TV doesn’t work, the merchant gives you a new one.

Shopping for a mortgage is more complicated, less fun and infinitely more dangerous to your long-term financial interests. At the end of the process, you probably have no idea of whether you got the best deal available. Was the upgrade on those cherry kitchen cabinets really worth the high rate and fees you paid to the lender affiliated with your friendly home builder? Probably not, but that salesman sure was persuasive, and you were glad to be relieved of spending the next three days shopping for mortgages.

Now help is on the way from a most unlikely source: The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, or HUD.

Federal rules that take effect Friday mandate a standard, three-page Good Faith Estimate that urges consumers to shop around for the best loan and helps them compare lenders’ offerings. The rules, announced by HUD in November 2008 but just taking effect this week, are an update of the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act, a 1974 law known as Respa. (See WSJ story.)

One difficulty of shopping for mortgages is that the lender with the lowest rates often isn’t offering the best deal. High fees can wipe out the benefits of low rates, and little-noticed features such as prepayment penalties might blow up on you later on. Even for members of Mensa, it’s hard to compare different combinations or rates, “points” (paid in exchange for a lower rate), fees and other terms. Lenders often sprinkled in lots of confusing charges, such as processing and messenger fees, to pad their margins. Dickering over theses “junk” fees distracted borrowers from the bigger picture of total costs.

All of these complexities favor lenders, of course. The more confused you get, the less likely you are to realize you just got fleeced.

To address those problems, the new estimate form requires lenders to wrap all the fees they control into one “origination charge.” That lets you compare one lender’s fees with another’s. Jack Guttentag, a finance professor emeritus at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, recommends that borrowers focus on two items as they shop: the interest rate and the “adjusted origination charge,” which includes any points paid to lower the rate.

Good Faith Estimates have been around for decades, but there was no standard format. Under the new rules, lenders and mortgage brokers are required to give consumers the standard estimate forms within three days of receiving a loan application.

Lenders aren’t allowed to increase the origination fee from the estimate. Some additional charges, including title services and recording charges, can increase by as much as a combined 10%. Estimates for other charges, such as homeowner’s insurance and other services provided by third parties selected by the borrower, aren’t subject to such limits.

Title insurance typically is the largest fee, and the new forms let consumers know they don’t have to accept the insurer suggested by the lender. Mr. Guttentag says title insurance can be “vastly overpriced” and consumers should take the time to shop for it.

Settlement firms, which organize the closings of home sales, will be required to issue a new version of the HUD-1 form used in closings. This new HUD-1 includes a comparison of the estimated and final costs, as well as a summary of the loan terms.

Will all this make a big difference? Mr. Guttentag, who has been exposing the tricks of lenders and brokers for decades, thinks the new rules will help, though they aren’t a cure-all.

Much depends on whether Americans want to put in a bit of effort rather than simply accept the often biased mortgage advice of a real estate agent, home builder, broker or banker. The real estate agent may urge you to use an affiliate of his firm, or recommend the lender most likely to grant a loan quickly rather than the one with the best terms. The builder wants you to use his in-house lender. The brokers and loan officers are working for themselves, not for you.

When you’re trying to pick a new TV, you don’t rely on a TV manufacturer to give you an impartial review of the alternatives.
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Plan to demolish building on Wilshire Boulevard is opposed by L.A. Conservancy

The conservancy says the 1965 Columbia Savings building at La Brea Avenue is worth saving. Area residents worry that a planned 482-unit apartment and retail complex would add to congestion.
By: Cara Mia DiMassa: latimes.com
The stretch of Wilshire Boulevard between downtown and the Miracle Mile was for decades a center of commerce, with buildings once occupied by such business powerhouses as Union Bank, Texaco, IBM and Getty Oil.

In more recent years, it's been transformed into a residential hub, with a construction boom of mid-rise condo and luxury apartment buildings.

Yet for all of the momentum - more than two dozen residential developments either have been completed or proposed for the corridor - a backlash is now gaining steam, and it's centered on a mid-century former savings and loan building at Wilshire and La Brea Avenue.

The squat building, with a ribboned facade and a stained-glass skylight, is an example of a type of architecture that was prevalent in the years after World War II, when financial institutions pushed for bold buildings to symbolize their own emergence from staid practices and reputations.

Preservationists have joined with some residents in an effort to save the structure, which they consider architecturally significant, a gem of Modernist design that the public has only recently begun to appreciate. They have filed a request with the state of California to give the building landmark status.

Some residents are backing the request, saying the boom in mid-rise apartment complex construction along Wilshire has gone too far.

But the developers say that the building's significance has been overstated and that the neighborhood would be better served with the 482-unit apartment and retail complex they have proposed for the site.

Dale Goldsmith, a land-use attorney representing BRE Properties, the building's owner and developer, said the project "will reflect the demographics of the area."

At a hearing of the Los Angeles City Council's Planning and Land Use Management Committee on Tuesday, Councilman Dennis Zine called the project "well worth it for the community."

The committee approved the developer's plan Tuesday, sending it to the full council for final approval, which is expected as early as later this week.

But that, said Mike Buhler, the Los Angeles Conservancy's director of advocacy, is short-sighted.

He said that the city failed to consider the historical significance of the building and that the developer could put the structure, which is only a portion of the block that BRE wants to develop, to an alternate use such as a restaurant, store or gym rather than demolish it.

"We were surprised that the draft environmental impact report refused to recognize the building's significance in any way," Buhler said.

Should the building be recognized by the state as architecturally significant, the city would have to go back and reconsider that as a part of the environmental impact report. A hearing on the state matter is scheduled for Jan. 29, and the conservancy is asking the city to delay a vote on the Wilshire-La Brea project until after then.

The Columbia Savings building, which opened in 1965, is at the center of the conservancy's "60s turn 50" initiative.

The effort recognizes a class of buildings in Los Angeles from that era whose significance has not been widely acknowledged.

The building, which most recently served as a church, isn't mentioned in the city's definitive architectural guide, and the City Council overturned a recommendation by the city's Cultural Heritage Commission supporting the application for state landmark consideration.

The BRE design for the block, bordered by Wilshire, La Brea, Sycamore Avenue and 8th Street, calls for a public pocket park as well as undulating edges and double rows of trees - all efforts that Goldsmith said were aimed at softening the building's effect on the neighborhood and keeping it from being too monolithic. A previous proposal called for a structure at Wilshire and La Brea to be 17 stories; that was scaled down to seven stories after community objections.

The back-and-forth over the project comes on the heels of a profound change in the Wilshire Corridor, with sleek glass-and-steel towers being added to the cityscape while formerly shuttered office towers have been rehabbed as residences.

Goldsmith said he's worked on five projects in the area, and BRE finished the 5600 Wilshire project, just west of La Brea, earlier this year.

Because Wilshire is considered a transit corridor - with rapid bus lines and Metro stops - and because it's one of the few places in the city where high-rise towers are allowed, many developers see the changes along the boulevard as a symbol of the city's evolution.

The economic slowdown has had little effect on their progress, and longtime residents worry that the growing number of people along the corridor will put added pressure on transportation and infrastructure that is already struggling to keep up.

In a letter to the city planning department, resident Susan Baker objected to what she called "the Manhattanization" of her neighborhood, and she worried that the Wilshire-La Brea project would bring more traffic and noise pollution.

"This entire area is becoming overbuilt with brand-new apartments," Baker wrote. "Who $ay$ we have to have $till more?"

Jim O'Sullivan, president of the Miracle Mile Residents Assn., said he saw residents divided about the Wilshire-La Brea project: Some welcomed the development of the building and the area around it, and others objected to even more construction in their area.

But he said that almost everyone worried what effect the economy would ultimately have on their area. Already, he said, he's noticed that potholes are not fixed as quickly, and streetlights can be out of order for weeks.

"I think at the moment, everybody is just holding their breath with what is going on in the city and elsewhere," O'Sullivan said. "We're trying to figure out what happens next."
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Mortgage Applications in U.S. Increased 2.1% Last Week, MBA Index Shows

Mortgage applications in the U.S. rose last week, led by a gain in purchase applications as mortgage rates approached historic lows.
By: Bob Willis: Bloomberg.com
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of applications to purchase a home or refinance a loan rose 2.1 percent to 613.7 in the week ended Nov. 27 from 601 the prior week.
The group’s gauge of purchases gained 4.1 percent, a second consecutive advance, while its measure of refinancing climbed 1.7 percent.

Cheaper borrowing costs and a tax credit for first-time homebuyers are giving demand a lift and may pave the way for a self-sustaining housing recovery. An unemployment rate that is forecast to exceed 10 percent through the first half of 2010 is one reason why any improvement is likely to be uneven.

“The combination of falling rates, the tax credit extension and improved affordability point toward a rebound in housing demand,” Michael Larson, a housing analyst at Weiss Research in Jupiter, Florida, said before the report. “Purchase applications should enter 2010 with the wind at their back.”

The purchase index rose to 232.3 from the prior week’s 223.1. The measure reached a 12-year low in mid-November. The mortgage bankers’ refinance gauge increased to 2866.4 last week from 2818.7, today’s report showed.

The share of applicants seeking to refinance loans rose to 72.1 percent of total applications last week.

Rates Fall

The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan declined to 4.79 percent last week, the lowest since May, from 4.83 percent, according to the mortgage bankers group. The rate reached 4.61 percent at the end of March, the lowest level since the group’s records began in 1990.

At the current 30-year rate, monthly borrowing costs for each $100,000 of a loan would be $524, or about $43 less than the same week a year earlier, when the rate was 5.48 percent.

The average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage fell to 4.27 percent from 4.32 percent. The rate on a one-year adjustable mortgage declined to 6.56 percent.

President Barack Obama on Nov. 6 extended the deadline for a tax credit of as much as $8,000 for first-time buyers to April 30, and added buyers who have owned a home for at least five years.

The tax credit, together with foreclosure-driven declines in prices and low rates, has helped boost housing sales from record low levels this year.

Mounting Joblessness

Even so, unemployment at a 26-year high is making most people reluctant to buy a home. Tighter credit standards are making it harder to get mortgages for those who want to buy.

Homebuilders, while seeing signs of improvement, remain cautious. Beazer Homes USA Inc. had a 2.4 percent gain in new orders in its fiscal fourth quarter, helping it post its first quarterly profit in three years, the Atlanta-based builder said Nov. 10.

“Elevated unemployment and rising foreclosure activity make it difficult to predict when and to what extent the housing market will sustainably recover,” Chief Executive Officer Ian McCarthy said in the statement.

The Washington-based Mortgage Bankers Association’s loan survey, compiled every week, covers about half of all U.S. retail residential mortgage originations.
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Obama administration pushes to make mortgage modifications permanent

New guidelines follow complaints involving restructured mortgages meant to keep homeowners from foreclosure. Lenders and servicers could face sanctions if requirements are not met.
By: Jim Puzzanghera: latimes.com
The Obama administration today announced a renewed push to get mortgage companies to convert hundreds of thousands of temporarily restructured home loans into permanent ones by the end of the year to help keep struggling homeowners from falling into foreclosure.

As part of its aggressive action, the administration is summoning executives from the nation's top mortgage servicers to Washington next week to prod them to speed up their efforts.

It also is sending what administration officials described as three-person "SWAT teams" to the offices of those firms to help them obtain the necessary documents from borrowers and trouble-shoot problems.

"In our judgment, servicers to date have not done a good enough job in bringing people a permanent modification solution," Assistant Treasury Secretary Michael Barr said.

The administration is hoping to embarrass mortgage servicing companies into doing more to make trial modifications permanent by highlighting those that are not performing well. But it also could levy penalties or other sanctions against laggards based on the agreements they signed to participate in the program.

"Servicers that don't meet their obligations under the program are going to suffer the consequences," Barr warned.

The moves come amid complaints of bureaucratic nightmares from people who have received the short-term reductions in their payments but have been unable to get their servicer to make the changes permanent. The mortgages have been altered under the administration's $75-billion Home Affordable Modification Program, which uses financial incentives to get banks and other mortgage holders to reduce the payments for homeowners who meet certain qualifications.

The program has temporarily modified more than 650,000 mortgages as of Oct. 30, with an average monthly payment reduction of $576. But few of those three-month trials are estimated to have been made permanent. As of Sept. 1, only 1,711 trial modifications had become permanent, according to the oversight panel monitoring the $700-billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. TARP money is used to fund the program.

The Treasury Department, for the first time, will release its own numbers next week. But Barr said the number was "low."

About 375,000 of the trial modifications are eligible to be made permanent by the end of the year. About a third of the homeowners with those temporary reductions have submitted the needed documents, including current income statements, so servicers can decide on permanent modifications, said Phyllis Caldwell, head of the Treasury Department's Homeownership Preservation Office.

"These homeowners, who took the time and effort to complete documentation, deserve a decision by their servicer," she said.

The administration's new plan focuses on increasing accountability by mortgage servicers. The leading mortgage servicers will be required to submit a schedule of their plans to reach a final decision on each loan for which they have the proper documentation and to send the borrower a permanent modification agreement or denial letter.

Many people in the program have complained of a bureaucratic runaround and inability to get a straight answer on their status from their mortgage holder.

Special account liaisons from the Treasury Department and Fannie Mae will be assigned to the eight largest servicers and monitor the progress as frequently as daily. The administration will require those companies to submit twice-daily updates throughout December on their progress. Mortgage servicers that fail to meet standards they agreed to as part of the program "will be subject to consequences, which could include monetary penalties and sanctions," administration officials said.

The administration also is providing new information for homeowners on its website, www.makinghomeaffordable.gov, including links to lists of documents and a new instructional video, to help them get their trial modification made permanent.
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Guidelines Aim to Ease Short Sales

The Obama administration laid out final guidelines on Monday that should make it easier for some financially troubled borrowers to sell their homes.
By: RUTH SIMON: WSJ.com
The guidelines are designed to encourage the use of short sales, transactions in which the borrower with lender approval sells the home for less than what is owed on the loan.
The program also makes it easier for borrowers to voluntarily transfer ownership of properties through a "deed in lieu of foreclosure."

Short sales can result in higher prices than foreclosures and can be less damaging to local neighborhoods, in part because homes aren't left vacant and exposed to vandalism. But these transactions are often difficult to complete.

Under the plan, borrowers will receive $1,500 from the government if they sell their homes for less than the amount of their mortgages. Mortgage-servicing companies will also receive $1,000 for each completed short sale. The program is open to borrowers who may be eligible for the government's loan-modification program, but don't end up qualifying, or are delinquent on their modification, or request a short sale or deed-in-lieu transaction.

The short-sale program is the latest addition to the Obama administration's $75 billion foreclosure-prevention plan, which includes incentives for mortgage companies and investors to rework troubled loans. The government first said in May that it would include short sales in the program, but it has taken months to finalize the details.

Under the new guidelines, second-mortgage holders can receive up to $3,000 of the sales proceeds in exchange for releasing their liens. Investors who hold the first mortgages, meanwhile, can collect up to $1,000 from the government for allowing such payments.

Borrowers who complete a short sale under the program must be "fully released" from future liability for the debt, according to the guidelines.
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Give a Home for the Holidays

Tired of the offerings at the mall? Consider giving your children something grander, like the gift of a down payment to buy a home—or even a home itself. Uncle Sam encourages such generosity.
By: JUNE FLETCHER: WSJ.com
'Tis the season of giving. But if you're tired of the offerings at the mall, why not consider giving your children something grander, like the gift of a down payment to buy a home—or even a home itself?

Uncle Sam encourages such generosity, at least within limits (the IRS site has details). You and your spouse are each allowed to give gifts of $13,000 of money or property to as many people as you want, without triggering taxes for you or the recipients. If you give more than this amount to any one person, the excess counts, dollar for dollar, against your $1 million lifetime gift-tax exclusion ($2 million for married couples).

So if you and your spouse wanted to give $50,000 to your son for a down payment on a house, together you could gift him $26,000 this year, and $24,000 next year, tax-free.

This gift could help him qualify to buy a home before the federal government's tax credit stimulus expires early next summer. If the gift allows him to make a down payment of 20% or more of the sales price, he'd also avoid having to pay private mortgage insurance.

Or, if you are interested in selling your home to your child, you could gift some of the equity in the home rather than cash. Lenders usually will accept such a gift, but may require two appraisals to make sure that the home is really worth the sales price, and will ask you to sign an affidavit affirming that you are giving a gift and don't expect repayment.

Alternatively, you could finance your deposit-poor child's second mortgage. Then you and your spouse could each give $13,000 to your child, and an equivalent amount to the child's spouse, until the loan is paid off. Or you could transfer a percentage of interest in the property each year, up to $13,000 per person, until the property belongs to your child.

It may make sense to give more than the tax-free limit each year if you think you'll be subject to the estate tax, which kicks in for those worth more than $3.5 million when you die (or $7 million for married couples), according to San Diego certified public accountant Michael Fitzsimmons. That's because if you live more than three years after the date of the gift, any appreciation on the property, plus the original value of the gift, escapes estate taxes.

What if you want to gift a property that has decreased in value since you purchased it? Not so uncommon in these post-bubble times. If you own a rental property that has dropped in value, Mr. Fitzsimmons says that it's better to sell it and take a tax loss than to gift it, since neither a donor nor a recipient can deduct a tax loss on a decrease in value that happened before the date of the gift. Losses on primary and vacation homes are non-deductible.

And what if the mortgage on the property exceeds the home's current value? It's possible to give such a property away, but according to Jenkintown, Pa., certified public accountant Michael Solomon, most lenders wouldn't allow ownership to be transferred unless the recipient was in as good or better financial shape than the donor—and might also require that the donor remain on the mortgage. Meanwhile, if you're asked to take on a home that's underwater, remember that you can't return it if it doesn't fit your lifestyle. "Declining the gift does make sense," says Mr. Solomon.
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Sales of existing homes surge 10.1% in October

Even as builders pulled back their construction of new homes in October, buyers snapped up previously owned properties at the briskest pace in more than two years, a national organization said this morning.
By: Alejandro Lazo: latimes.com
The National Assn. of Realtors in Washington said sales of previously owned homes increased 10.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.1 million units in October from a downwardly revised pace of 5.54 million in September.
That is up 23.5% from the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.94 million units in October 2008. The last time the sales pace was that swift was in February 2007.

The buying - motivated by low interest rates, cheap housing and a credit for first-time buyers - pushed housing inventory at the end of October down 3.7% to 3.57 million existing homes available for sale, which represented a seven-month supply at the current sales pace, according to the Realtors group.

“The supply of homes on the market is now at the lowest level in over 2 1/2 years - we’re getting closer to a general balance between buyers and sellers,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the group, said in a statement.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $173,100 in October, down 7.1% from October 2008. Distressed properties accounted for 30% of sales in October.

In the West, which includes California, sales of previously owned homes increased 1.6% to an annual rate of 1.31 million in October and are 12% above a year ago. The median price in the West was $220,200, which is 14.7% below October 2008. It was the weakest performance for both sales and housing price improvement among the four national regions.

While a rush of first-time buyers to use the credit ahead of its initial Nov. 30 tax credit helped boost sales in October some economists are predicting a drop-off in sales in the winter months despite the credit’s extension and expansion earlier this month.

In a note to clients this morning Patrick Newport, U.S. economist for IHS Global Insight, predicted that given that the Mortgage Bankers Association's purchase Index - a measure of mortgage loan application volume - dropped to its lowest level in 12 years in its most recent release, a December sales plunge is likely.

“This surge may last one more month,” Newport wrote.
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New Tax Credits Benefit Both First Time Buyers and Current Homeowners

Closing deadline extended to June 30, repeat buyers offered up to $6,500
By: Annalisa Burgos: FrontDoor.com
First time homebuyers aren't the only ones who can claim a tax credit when they purchase a home. Now current homeowners can take advantage of the tax break too, if they qualify.

President Barack Obama signed into law a $24 billion economic stimulus bill on Friday, which includes an extension and expansion of the popular first time homebuyer tax credit. It was set to expire on Nov. 30. Prospective buyers now have until June 30, 2010, to close on their purchase and will need to submit documentation with their tax returns to claim the credit. The new program is estimated to cost $11 billion. Here are the details:

FIRST TIME BUYERS

Credit: Equal to 10 percent of the home's purchase price, up to $8,000

Who Qualifies:

    •Those who haven't owned property in the last three years

    •Those with income up to $225,000 for couples and $125,000 for individuals
     (credit phases out for people who make more than these amounts)

    •Must be at least 18 years of age to claim credit

    •Purchase price must be $800,000 or less

Deadlines:

    •Have until April 30, 2010, to enter into contract for a home purchase

    •Have until June 30, 2010, to close on the purchase

CURRENT HOMEOWNERS

Credit: Equal to 10 percent of the home's purchase price, up to $6,500

Who Qualifies:

    •Those who have owned and lived in their principal residence for at least five
     consecutive years during the past eight years

    •Those with income up to $225,000 for couples and $125,000 for individuals
     (credit phases out for people who make more than these amounts)

    •Must be at least 18 years of age to claim credit

    •Purchase price must be $800,000 or less

Deadlines:

    •Have until April 30, 2010, to enter into contract for a home purchase

    •Have until June 30, 2010, to close on the purchase

In addition, buyers have another year to take advantage of the higher loan limit for mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration, Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac - set at 125 percent of local median home sales prices, up to a maximum of $729,750 in high-cost housing markets. The limit in normal markets will remain $271,050 for FHA and $417,000 for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

What this all means is that many more buyers qualify for a tax credit. So what are you waiting for? If you're even remotely considering buying a home, now's the time to do it. Don't let the first time buyers have all the fun.
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First-Time Homebuyers Buoy Real Estate Market

The housing market is getting a much-needed boost as first-time homebuyers rush to take advantage of an $8,000 federal tax credit that is set to expire Nov. 30, 2009.
By: David Bracken: RISMEDIA
The incentive is helping to slow the decline in home sales. In August, sales were down 1% over the comparable period last year, the smallest year-over-year decline in any month since late 2007. As Congress considers extending the credit, real-estate agents and home builders worry sales could slump again if it's allowed to expire.

A full accounting of the program’s popularity won’t be available for several months, but brokers say first-time buyers have been driving much of the activity in the market in recent months, especially for cheaper homes.

Kelly Cobb, a broker with Fonville Morisey Realty in Cary, North Carolina, said four of the six listings her office put under contract in the last month involved first-time buyers. Cobb said that as the deadline gets closer, she’s seeing more lower-end homes with multiple offers on them. “It has really, really fueled our market,” she said. “I think anybody who waited until now is going to pay top dollar.”

In order to qualify for the tax credit, a buyer must close on their property by Nov. 30. Brokers say in most cases that gives potential buyers about five more weeks to begin the closing process. The tax credit has been available since the start of the year, and for many families it has been too good to pass up. Terri Hutter and her husband, Fred Neumann, had been repaying credit-card debt and trying to build up savings in recent years. Hutter said the couple originally planned to continue renting for a year or two longer. “With that deadline I’m like, ‘Oh, let’s do it,’” said Hutter, who runs the culinary job training program for the Inter-Faith Food Shuttle. Hutter and Neumann expect to close Oct. 9 on a 1,360-square-foot home in Durham, N.C. The couple paid the listing price of $145,000 for the house and got a 30-year mortgage at a 4.875% interest rate.

Albert Blackmon and his fiancee, Rachel Blair also expected to wait a few years before buying a home. But Blackmon, who works as a Web developer in Apex, N.C., said the tax credit put buying a home within reach. The couple got a U.S. Department of Agriculture Rural Development loan with a 5% interest rate that required no money down. They paid $134,500 for a 1,250-square-foot home in Clayton, N.C. “We’re basically borrowing some money from some family members interest free, and when the credit comes back, we’re going to pay them right back and we have some instant equity in the house,” Blackmon said.

Those hoping to take advantage of the tax credit will need to have their financial house in order, as skittish lenders are closely scrutinizing a potential borrower’s credit and income history.

Tom Simon and his fiancee Tera Caldwell recently used the tax credit to purchase a home near downtown Raleigh. Simon admitted that getting financing was a long process, but he said that made him more confident that the couple could realistically afford the $193,000 house they ended up buying. Simon said the tax credit was not the deciding factor in the couple’s buying a home, but it did make them start seriously looking for a house sooner than they would have otherwise.

There’s still a chance that Congress could extend the tax credit in its current form or amend it. Some lawmakers worry about the program’s cost, which may hit an estimated $15 billion, more than double the amount projected in February’s economic stimulus bill, according to the Associated Press. Critics of the program also say it is artificially inflating demand at the expense of the taxpayer. “I would argue that it has the same effect of manipulating the real estate market that we’ve had with some other problems,” said Dallas Woodhouse, state director for the conservative group Americans for Prosperity. “There will be a day of reckoning for that.”

If the program is allowed to expire, real estate professionals will be watching closely to see what happens to home sales after it’s gone. George Pittman, CEO of Ammons Pittman GMAC Real Estate in Raleigh, said increased sales of lower-priced homes have not translated into more sales at the higher prices. Pittman said he would normally expect those selling $150,000 homes to then buy more expensive homes. “The thing we’re trying to figure out is why it is not snowballing up,” Pittman said. “It’s had some impact, but the upper end is still a bit soft right now.”

The tax credits have already had an effect on new home construction. As the inventory of modestly priced homes shrinks, builders are able to convince lenders that there is a need to replace them. The average cost of homes built in Wake County, N.C., was $165,000 in July, down from $195,000 during the same month a year ago, according the Home Builders Association of Raleigh-Wake County. There’s also been a spike in the number of building permits issued in Wake County in recent months. Tom Anhut, a division president in Raleigh for Toll Brothers home builders, said he believes the increase is a result of builders rushing to get homes finished by the end of November. “I think that there is a demonstrable increase in construction activity at the lower end right now because of that,” he said.

Tim Minton, executive vice president of the Home Builders Association of Raleigh-Wake County, said there’s no question the credit has helped stabilize a volatile market. “The question is, from a long-term standpoint, at some point that spigot does have to be turned off,” he said.
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Worried Mortgage Rates Will Rise? You Have Options

Prospective home buyers can protect themselves from an interest rate spike by investing in a mutual fund that tracks rates, or buying options on one of those funds, writes Brett Arends.
By: Brett Arends: WSJ.com
Good news for prospective home buyers: You can find 30-year mortgages for less than 5% again. But those rates may not last . And these days it's almost impossible to lock in a rate while you hunt for a home. Banks—for understandable reasons—now want to evaluate a property before pre-approving borrowers.

Mortgage rates have been falling in concert with sinking interest rates on long-term Treasury bonds. The two are closely related, through a complex mechanism involving mortgage-based securities. And if mortgage rates start rocketing again in the next few months, a rebound in long-term Treasury yields will likely be the cause.

People who worry that rates will spike again before they find a home can protect themselves by investing in a mutual fund that tracks long-term interest rates. Or they can buy call options on one of those funds instead. If Treasury rates suddenly skyrocket, you may make back what you would lose on the mortgage rates.

This may sound like some incredibly complex footwork, and most people will shy away from trying these moves. But considering the cost of even a slight rate change over the life of a mortgage, they're worth considering.

After all, if you're looking to buy a typical $200,000 home, a rise in mortgage rates from 5% to 6% will cost you an extra $1,300 a year for the next 30 years.

Several funds track long-term interest rates. Among them are two exchange-traded funds that you buy like shares on the stock market, the ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury fund (TBF) and the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury fund (TBT). There is also the Rydex Inverse Government Long Bond Strategy mutual fund (RYJUX). (Technically, these funds track the inverse of the price of long-term government bonds, which in turn is inversely related to the yield.)

These funds come with risks. The two exchange-traded funds, TBF and TBT, are specifically designed to track daily moves in the long-term bond market rather than long-term moves. The TBT is particularly volatile because it is what is known as an "Ultra" fund—it will give you double the market move, up or down. The drawback: If rates fall further while you are house hunting, you will save extra money on your mortgage —but you'd lose money on these funds.

That's why the options market looks especially interesting.

You can purchase call options on the TBT fund. These calls wager that the $4 billion fund will see a sharp rise in share price in the next few months, and could operate like a form of insurance if mortgage rates suddenly spike during your real-estate search.

Here's how it works: Today, with 30-year Treasury rates at just 4%, the TBT is about $44 a share. But for $1.20 a share you could buy a $50 call option on the fund, good for any time between now and January. That would simply give you the right to buy the TBT at $50 between then and now. So if long-term interest rates were to skyrocket over the next few months, and the TBT soared to, say, $60, you'd pocket a profit of $10 a share (less the $1.20 in costs for the option).

Because the TBT tracks daily performance, there is no absolute way of knowing what long-term Treasury rate would correspond to any given price on the TBT. But the fund was about $59 in June.

Issues like compliance and complexity probably deter most financial intermediaries from offering any such product. That's a shame, because an options hedge could be very useful to a lot of middle-class Americans.

No strategy can offer perfect protection against mortgage rates: it's a work-around, based upon derivatives of derivatives of the Treasury market. But anyone who thinks or fears that long-term interest rates will rise dramatically in the next few months might look at buying call options on the TBT.
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Real Estate Outlook: Recession is Over

Now it's official. The chairman of the Federal Reserve Board himself has said it publicly that it looks like the recession is over.
By: Kenneth R. Harney: RealtyTimes.com
Here comes the recovery.

But there was a big footnote in Bernanke's speech on the economy last week in Washington: Don't look for a dramatic recovery.

It'll be more like a slow moving, plodding sort of improvement where the economy inches toward expansion. But there'll be no sudden, splashy return to economic boomtime anytime soon.

Bernanke's point about the end of the recession was underscored by a 2.7 percent jump in retail sales for the month of August, according to the Commerce Department.

That's an important indicator because the key to pumping up the economy again is to get consumers spending, and that appears to be happening. Not just for auto sales, which got a big boost in August from the government's "cash for clunkers" program, but also for other key categories, like food and clothing purchases, department store retail, entertainment and restaurant spending, sporting goods.

They were all up for the month, after having been mainly down for well over a year.

One reason for the pick-up in consumer spending: People feel more confident about the direction of the economy in the months ahead. They see the stock market up, so their retirement funds and 401 K plans are bouncing back.

They see home values stabilizing or growing in most areas, so their equity is beginning to increase again.

The one big negative - and it's definitely a drag for housing - is the unemployment rate, which Mr. Bernanke said won't be coming down fast, even with the end of the recession.

Nonetheless, the vast majority of Americans who do have jobs have seen their real wages rise this year, up five percent. That's the largest annual gain in fifty years.

All of this is feeding into the housing sector in key markets, such as southern California, where August sales were up 11 percent compared with the year before, according to MDA DataQuick. Even prices are rising slightly.

In the combined markets of Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange County, San Bernadino-Riverside and Ventura, the median price of homes sold gained 2.6 percent in August, which is very encouraging for one of the hardest-hit boom-to-bust areas of the country.

Meanwhile, the mortgage market continues to be exceptionally positive for housing sales and values: 30 year fixed rates averaged just above 5 percent last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, and 15 year loans averaged 4.4 percent.
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Housing Seems Set to Aid Economy a Bit

After facilitating the economy's downfall, the housing sector will soon start helping its recovery, though probably not by much.
By: MARK GONGLOFF: WSJ.com
Census Bureau data on August housing starts are due Thursday morning. Economists think starts rose 3.3% from June to an annualized rate of 600,000 units, the fastest pace since November 2008.

A tentative recovery in home construction might be enough to boost annualized gross-domestic-product growth by as much as 0.5 percentage point, according to some estimates, perhaps as soon as this quarter.

That would be an impressive turn of events. Collapsing residential construction slashed nearly one percentage point, on average, from GDP growth for the past 3½ years in a row.

That starts are gaining ground might seem quizzical, as there is still an oversupply of housing on the market, including a large "shadow" inventory of homes that will eventually enter foreclosure or that are being held off the market while their owners wait for prices to recover.

But many unsold homes might be too large for the first-time buyers that have boosted the market in recent months, spurred by government tax credits, suggests Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. Home builders can make smaller houses to meet that demand.

Still, there are limits to how much activity is likely to be seen. Builders remain cautious. Though their sentiment has improved, it is still near record lows, according to the latest survey by the National Association of Home Builders.

August's expected gain would still leave starts down 29% from a year ago and down 74% from the 2.27 million-unit record pace set in January 2006, at the height of the bubble.

Goldman Sachs economists, weighing population growth, inventory and still-high home-vacancy rates, estimate there might be just 850,000 housing starts in 2010 - roughly the pace before the Lehman Brothers collapse a year ago.

That suggests there mightn't be much more juice in home-builder stocks. The Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Total Stock Market Index has more than doubled from its November bottom and is near pre-Lehman levels.

It also suggests housing's contribution to GDP will be minimal.

Still, it's a start.
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Housing Starts in U.S. Climb to Nine-Month High

Builders in the U.S. broke ground in August on the most houses in nine months, led by a jump in multifamily dwellings that overshadowed a decrease in construction of single-family homes.
By: Bob Willis: Bloomberg.com
Housing starts rose 1.5 percent to an annual rate of 598,000, as anticipated, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington.
Single-family projects dropped 3 percent, the first decrease since January, while work began on 25 percent more multifamily units, such as apartments.

Builders may be pulling back as the expiration of the government’s tax credit for first-time buyers nears. The incentive, plus foreclosure-driven declines in prices, helped boost sales in recent months, and companies may not want to be caught with excess supply should the program fail to be extended.

“These tax incentives often borrow from future sales and the pickup does not last,” Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, said before the report. “This does not throw the recovery idea into a tailspin, but the housing normalization will come at a slow, measured pace.”

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index were down 0.1 percent to 1,062.60 at 8:39 a.m. in New York after rising as much as 0.6 percent.

Jobless Claims

A separate report today from the Labor Department showed that the number of Americans filing first-time claims for jobless benefits fell unexpectedly last week, a sign the labor market is deteriorating at a slower pace as the economy pulls out of the recession.

Applications dropped by 12,000 to 545,000 in the week ended Sept. 12, from a revised 557,000 the week before. The total number of people collecting unemployment insurance rose the prior week.

Starts were projected to rise to a 598,000 annual pace from a 581,000 rate initially reported for July, according to the median forecast of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from 570,000 to 640,000.

Permits, a sign of future construction, climbed 2.7 percent to a 579,000 annual rate in August, also led by an increase in multifamily. They were projected to rise to 583,000, economists forecast.

Construction of single-family houses, which account for about 85 percent of the industry, fell 3 percent to a 479,000 rate, the first decline since January. Work on multi-family units, which make up the rest of the market and is often volatile, jumped 25 percent to a 119,000 rate.

Gains in Northeast

The increase in starts was led by a 24 percent increase in the Northeast. They rose 0.9 percent in the Midwest, and fell 2.4 percent in the South. The West was little changed.

Volatility in multifamily projects has obscured the underlying improvement in residential building. Construction of apartments and condominiums surged 56 percent in May only to slump by 21 percent and 15 percent the next two months.

Americans are taking advantage of the Obama administration’s $8,000 tax credits for first-time buyers that expires at the end of November. Those with jobs, cash to make down payments and good credit scores are picking up bargains as record foreclosures have driven down home prices by about 32 percent from their peaks in mid-2006, according to the S&P/Case- Shiller index.

Combined sales of new and existing homes rose in the four months though July.

A report yesterday showed gains in sales and buyer traffic pushed builder confidence this month to its highest level since May 2008.

Toll Brothers

Luxury builder Toll Brothers Inc. is among companies that see demand improving, even as losses mount.

“In the last six months, we see a pretty significant change in some markets,” Chief Executive Officer Robert Toll said in an interview Aug. 27 with Bloomberg Television. “People are now concerned with missing the market.”
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L.A. Buyers Flock to Low-End and Luxury Homes

L.A. homebuyers went to extremes in August, boosting sales in the high- and low-price ranges.
HOUSING: August sales up 45 percent year to year and 5 percent from July.
By: HOWARD FINE: Los Angeles Business Journal.com
People are buying homes again in L.A. County, and not just cheap foreclosed properties: They’re buying at the upper end, too.

Convinced that prices are near the bottom, and drawn by low interest rates and impending deadlines for federal and state tax credits, first-time homebuyers and bargain hunters continued their return to the market, often getting into bidding wars over foreclosed and bargain-rate properties, especially condominiums.

Meanwhile, banks have finally eased the reins a bit for jumbo loans, allowing buyers to step in at the upper end, boosting sales in luxury areas like Calabasas, Manhattan Beach and Palos Verdes Estates.

These trends are evident in the August new and existing residential sales data for Los Angeles County from HomeData Corp. of Hicksville, N.Y. Home sales jumped 45 percent from August 2008 and August 2009, and were even up 5 percent from July levels.

Meanwhile, the median home price held steady at $330,000 between July and August. Also noteworthy: The rate of year-over-year decline is slowing: Between August 2008 and August 2009, the price dropped 18 percent, compared with a 30 percent drop between August 2007 and August 2008.

“We’re either at or near the bottom,” said economist Chris Thornberg, a principal with Beacon Economics in West Los Angeles and a close observer of L.A.’s real estate markets.

The biggest beneficiary has been the condo market, where sales surged 55 percent between August 2008 and August 2009.

What’s more, condo prices posted a 7 percent gain between July and August, hitting $320,000, the highest level since November. The August numbers show a 16 percent decline in year-over-year condo prices.

A federal tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time homebuyers runs through November, while a state tax credit of up to $10,000 just expired this past week for purchases of new homes and condominiums. These credits – combined with mortgage interest rates in the 4 percent to 5 percent range for 30-year fixed-rate loans less than $417,000 – have spurred many buyers who had been sitting on the sidelines during the housing market meltdown.

This has boosted sales in the county’s urban core, with communities such as El Sereno and Exposition Park recording year-over-year sales jumps of 200 percent or more. Many of the county’s suburban markets, including Mission Hills, Pomona and West Covina, saw sales volumes double between August 2008 and August 2009.

Yet sales are also hopping in many areas at the opposite end of the price spectrum. Several ZIP codes with median home prices exceeding $1 million saw their sales volumes increase by more than 100 percent over the past year, including areas of Calabasas, the Hollywood Hills, Manhattan Beach and Palos Verdes Estates.

“The prices have finally dropped enough to where buyers are stepping in and the banks are doing better at making loans,” said Syd Leibovitch, owner of Rodeo Realty in Beverly Hills.

Leibovitch said few banks were making jumbo loans of more than $730,000 earlier this year, and the few that were required down payments of 50 percent or more and were charging interest rates of 8 percent or 9 percent.

“Now, with the price coming down and the interest rates more like 5.5 percent, a home that was on the market for $3 million six months ago is now being sold for, say, $2.2 million,” he said.

Tightening supply

In Manhattan Beach, tightening supply is also an issue. Six months ago, there were seven months’ worth of unsold homes on the market. Today, that figure has been cut in half, said Steve Goddard, broker-manager for ReMax Marquee Partners in Manhattan Beach and president-elect of the California Association of Realtors.

In Long Beach, the supply of residential units is so tight that one brokerage house has started sending out mailers to see if residents would be willing to sell their homes.

“We’re actually doing mailings into certain areas of Long Beach inquiring if anyone is looking to sell,” said Phil Jones, managing partner of the Coldwell Banker Coastal Alliance, which has three offices in Long Beach. “This has been very surprising; a few months ago, we would never have dreamed of this situation.”

Yet despite all these encouraging signs, few are willing to say the local housing market is in recovery mode.

“The real estate market is now bouncing along the bottom,” Goddard said.

Looming over everything is the huge number of foreclosures, both current and expected. As has been the case for the past year, many of the bargain properties now on the market are foreclosures.

But nearly everyone expects thousands of new foreclosures to be dumped into the L.A. market in coming months now that a federal moratorium on foreclosures has been lifted.

“This halting, temporary recovery we’re seeing right now could be cut short by future foreclosures coming onto the market,” said Joe Breckner, sales associate with Coldwell Banker of Studio City.

Also in question is the impact that the expiration of the federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers in November will have on the market.

“It’s like the Cash for Clunkers program,” said Stephen Cauley, director of research at the Ziman Center for Real Estate at UCLA. “It was very good while it lasted, but what it ended up doing was stealing sales from the future.”
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Yes, the Housing Market Has Rarely Looked Better

Passing through the Fort Myers, Fla., airport a few weeks ago, I noticed people eagerly signing up for a free bus tour of foreclosed real estate—with all properties offering water views.
By: JAMES B. STEWART: WSJ.com
During the ride to my hotel, the young driver volunteered that he had just bought his first house, paying $65,000 for a foreclosed property in nearby Cape Coral that last sold for over $250,000. He said he had never expected to be able to buy anything on a driver's salary, let alone something that nice.

Last week, Standard & Poor's reported that its S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price index of real-estate values increased this past quarter over the first quarter of 2009, the first quarter-on-quarter increase in three years. Its index of 20 major cities also rose for the three months ended June 30 over the three months ended May 31, with only hard-hit Detroit and Las Vegas experiencing declines. The week before that, the National Association of Realtors reported that sales volume of existing homes was up 7.2% in July from June.

In short, the data suggest that real-estate prices hit a bottom some time during the second quarter, and have now begun to rise. There's no way to be certain that this marks the end of the long, painful correction that followed the real-estate bubble, but clearly prices are no longer in free-fall. That means if you've been sitting on the fence, it's time to act.

Ordinarily I'd never try to time the real-estate market, but I can understand why buyers have been cautious. Few want to buy in down markets, just as stock buyers avoid bear markets. And for most people, of course, buying a house is a much bigger decision than buying a stock. But with real-estate prices nationally now down about 30% from their 2006 peak and showing signs of turning up, the prices aren't likely to go much lower. Every real-estate market is local, and so there may be a few exceptions. Overall, though, I can't imagine a better time to buy than now.

In addition to bargain prices, buyers also should find plenty of homes to choose from. The inventory of unsold homes was 4.09 million units in July, up 7.3% from June, according to the National Association of Realtors. And mortgage rates this week were at a two-month low of close to 5%, according to Zillow. Even the stricter appraisal process is working to the advantage of buyers. Appraisals are coming in far lower than most sellers have been expecting, forcing them to face the new reality of sharply lower prices. And with stricter standards, lenders aren't going to let buyers borrow more than they can afford, which protects buyers and helps to keep prices down.

Unless you're really prepared to accept the demands (and headaches) of being a landlord, I don't recommend direct ownership of real estate as an investment. The days of buyers lining up to flip Miami Beach and Las Vegas condos are mercifully gone.

There are much easier ways to make money in real estate, such as real-estate investment trusts or buying shares in home builders and other housing-related businesses (such as Home Depot). Historically, the mean rate of return on real estate has been around 3%, according to research from Yale economist Robert Shiller, who co-developed the Case-Shiller index. Shares in REITs and other stocks have often done much better.

But there's a good reason homeownership has been such a central part of the American dream. It delivers security, pride of ownership, a sense of community and decent investment returns as a bonus. I felt glad for my driver in Florida. He represents the other side of the foreclosure crisis. For every hardship story, and no doubt there are many, others are realizing their dreams of home ownership and getting what may well turn out to be the deals of their lives.

James B. Stewart, a columnist for SmartMoney magazine and SmartMoney.com, writes weekly about his personal investing strategy. Unlike Dow Jones reporters, he may have positions in the stocks he writes about.
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U.S. Housing May Be Turning Around, Shiller Says (Update1)

An improvement in home prices suggests the U.S. property market may be recovering, said Robert Shiller, a professor of economics at Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut.
By: Vincent Del Giudice: Bloomberg.com
“We might be seeing a turnaround,” Shiller said today in an interview on Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg Television. “I say ‘might’ because there’s still a pretty weak economy out there.”

Shiller is co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index, which fell 15.4 percent in June from a year earlier, the smallest decline since April 2008. On a month-over-month basis, the index rose by the most in four years. The report was issued yesterday.

The month-over-month increase in home prices is “quite striking,” Shiller said. “The sense that something is changing is definitely in the air.”

Speaking about the broader economy, “recessions are generally ‘V’ shaped,” Shiller said. “Probably something like that will happen again,” even though a “disappointing recovery” is possible, he said.

The longest economic contraction since the end of World War II has claimed 6.7 million jobs since December 2007. Stocks are “a tad overpriced by historical standards,” Shiller said. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has surged about 51 percent from a 12-year low on March 9.
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Positive Signs: Home Prices on an Upswing in Second Quarter 2009

Data through June 2009, released by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the U.S. National Home Price Index improved in the second quarter of 2009.
RISMEDIA
The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index- which covers all nine U.S. census divisions- recorded a 14.9% decline in the 2nd quarter of 2009 versus the 2nd quarter of 2008. While still a substantial negative annual rate of return, this is an improvement over the record decline of 19.1% reported in the 1st quarter of the year. The 10-City and 20-City Composites recorded annual declines of 15.1% and 15.4%, respectively. These are also improvements from their recent respective record losses of -19.4% and -19.1%.

“For the second month in a row, we’re seeing some positive signs,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “The U.S. National Composite rose in the 2nd quarter compared to the 1st quarter of 2009. This is the first time we have seen a positive quarter-over-quarter print in three years. Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted monthly increases, as did most of the cities. As seen in both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted data, there are hints of an upward turn from a bottom. However, some of the hardest hit cities, especially in the Sun Belt, show continued weakness.”

As of the 2nd quarter of 2009, average home prices across the United States are at similar levels to what they were in early 2003. From the peak in the second quarter of 2006, average home prices are down 30.2%.

The 10-City and 20-City Composites posted their second consecutive monthly increases. Both indices were up 1.4% in June over May, and up 0.5% in May over April. Eighteen of the 20 metro areas saw improvement in their annual returns compared to those of May. Looking at the monthly data, the same 18 metro areas reported positive returns in June.

In spite of the recent positive data, the overall numbers remain weak, with all metro areas and the two composites posting negative annual returns, and 15 out of the 20 metro areas reporting double digit annual declines. While not alone, Las Vegas and Detroit continue to be two markets that are struggling severely. These are the only two markets that fell in June and saw deterioration in their annual rates of return. Since their relative peaks they have fallen 54.3% and 45.3%, respectively.

More upbeat news is seen in the monthly data across other markets; Dallas and Denver have reported four consecutive months of positive returns. In addition to the two composites, 13 of the MSAs reported positive monthly returns for June that were greater than +1.0%.

The table below summarizes the results for June 2009. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the 24 prior months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

2009 Q2 2009 Q2/2009 Q1 2009 Q1/2008 Q4 1-Year
Level Change (%) Change (%) Change (%)
U.S. National
Index 132.64 2.9% -7.4% -14.9%
June 2009 June/May May/April 1-Year
Metropolitan Level Change (%) Change (%) Change (%)
Area
Atlanta 107.52 1.5% 0.5% -13.7%
Boston 152.71 2.6% 1.6% -5.9%
Charlotte 120.66 0.7% 0.9% -9.6%
Chicago 124.99 1.1% 1.1% -16.7%
Cleveland 106.38 4.2% 4.1% -3.0%
Dallas 119.68 2.7% 1.9% -2.2%
Denver 126.92 2.5% 1.3% -3.6%
Detroit 69.49 -0.8% 0.2% -25.0%
Las Vegas 107.31 -2.0% -2.6% -32.4%
Los Angeles 160.90 1.1% -0.1% -17.8%
Miami 145.37 0.5% -0.8% -23.4%
Minneapolis 113.48 3.1% 1.1% -19.8%
New York 171.49 0.4% 0.2% -11.9%
Phoenix 104.73 1.1% -0.9% -31.6%
Portland 148.47 1.0% 0.1% -15.2%
San Diego 147.31 1.6% 0.4% -16.0%
San Francisco 124.70 3.8% 1.4% -22.0%
Seattle 149.53 0.4% -0.3% -16.1%
Tampa 140.90 0.4% 0.0% -19.5%
Washington 174.32 2.8% 1.3% -11.8%
Composite-10 153.20 1.4% 0.5% -15.1%
Composite-20 141.86 1.4% 0.5% -15.4%
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.California Existing-Home Sales Up 12% in July

Sales of existing single-family homes in California increased 12% in July from the same time a year ago, as the state’s median price rose for the fifth straight month.
By: Jim Carlton: WSJ.com
Sales increased to 553,910 on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis from a revised sales pace of 494,390 in July 2008, according to a report released Tuesday by the California Association of Realtors. The inventory of unsold houses continued to drop, to 3.9 months supply in July from 6.9 months at the same time a year ago.

Median prices were off 19.6% from July 2008 to $285,480, but were up 3.9% from June—continuing a string of back-to-back sequential price increases that began in March. Officials with the Realtors’ group credited first-time buyers for much of the buying volume, helping the under-$500,000 segment of the market to jump to include 74% of statewide sales from 43% when the California housing market went into a slump two years ago.

Few experts say California’s housing market is out of the woods, though. One threat is the prospect of more foreclosures flooding the market, as the state struggles with an unemployment rate of 11.9% as of July.

And Realtors’ officials say they are concerned sales have become overly tied to first-time buyers and a federal tax credit they have used for their purchases. Indeed, James Liptak, president of the association, said nearly 40% of first-time buyers said they would not have purchased a home without the tax credit, and called for Congress to extend it beyond a Dec. 1 deadline as well as open it up to all buyers, not just first-timers.

Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist of the association, said the high end of the California market remains soft with weak sales and prices as credit remains tight for jumbo loans.
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Start house-hunting now to qualify for tax credit for first-time home buyers

First-time home buyers had better get a move on if they hope to take advantage of the $8,000 federal tax credit.
By: Lew Sichelman: latimes.com
The window of opportunity is closing rapidly.

To qualify for the credit, any transaction involving a first-time buyer must close before midnight Nov. 30, when the valuable tax benefit expires. And because the buying and lending processes can be slow, you're going to need every bit of that time to close escrow.

Although the end of November might seem a long way off, Diane Dilzell, president of the New Jersey Assn. of Realtors, rightly points out that it takes weeks, if not months, to manage the logistics involved in a real estate transaction. It's also important to realize that any of a number of things can go haywire along the way.

"Unique circumstances can be encountered in any transaction, so it is important to account for those factors," said Dilzell, a broker at Pinnacle Realtors in Bedminster, N.J. "Since numerous third parties are involved, delays can be expected no matter how swiftly you act."

Another complicating factor: closed offices during the Thanksgiving holiday. With Thanksgiving this year falling on Nov. 26, that removes four days right before the deadline.

Undoubtedly, some escrow agents will scrap vacation plans to handle what is expected to be a crush of settlements. But that highlights yet another potential pitfall: There may be so many buyers trying to close at the last minute that there might not be enough room for them all.

Moreover, if you're banking on Congress to extend the tax credit or possibly even expand it, the odds are against you, at least right now.

Even though there's always a chance that lawmakers will do the unexpected, House and Senate leaders have said they will not take up any expiring provisions until they have completed work on healthcare-reform legislation. Moreover, with many signs indicating that the moribund market is starting to awaken, many legislators might decide that housing no longer needs a shot in the arm.

And don't expect to sneak a Dec. 1 closing past the Internal Revenue Service either. That's fraud, and the nation's tax collector has any number of sophisticated screening tools to quickly identify returns that may contain fraudulent claims.

What's more, the IRS has vowed to go after taxpayers who try to pull a fast one. "We will vigorously pursue anyone who falsely tries to claim this or any other tax credit or deduction," says Eileen Mayer, the agency's chief criminal investigator.

Buyers with specific questions about the tax credit should consult with a qualified tax advisor. But here's a brief rundown of the rules.

A first-timer is defined as anyone who has not owned a principal residence during the three years immediately before the purchase. The house doesn't qualify for the credit, though, if the buyer sells it before the end of the year.

Vacation homes and investment properties do not qualify; only main residences, new or resale, which can be a single-family house, town house, condominium, manufactured (or mobile) home or even a houseboat. If you hire a contractor to build the house rather than buy from a builder, the house is still treated as having been purchased.

Purchases must be arm's-length transactions. The seller cannot be a parent, grandparent, child, grandchild or spouse. Legal residents who file U.S. tax returns qualify for the credit, but those who are undocumented immigrants or nonresidents do not.

Married people filing as such cannot claim the credit if either spouse has owned a main residence within the last three years, but unmarried joint purchasers - say, a parent and his son - may allocate the credit in any way they see fit as long as it does not exceed the $8,000 maximum.

Speaking of maximum, the tax credit is equal to 10% of the purchase price up to $8,000. But there are income limits. For single taxpayers, the ceiling is $75,000; for married taxpayers filing jointly, it is $150,000. For those with modified adjusted gross incomes above those limits, the tax credit is reduced on a sliding-scale basis to zero when the income exceeds $95,000 for single payers and $170,000 for married payers.

To assist would-be buyers who need help with down-payment and closing costs, the government will allow those who finance their purchases with a federally insured loan to apply their anticipated credit immediately toward the transaction rather than waiting until they file their 2009 taxes to receive a refund.

Under guidelines announced by the Federal Housing Administration, nonprofits and FHA-approved lenders are permitted to make short-term loans to qualified borrowers in the amount they would otherwise receive as a refund.

The law permits taxpayers to treat purchases that take place this year as though they occurred on Dec. 31, 2008. You can apply the tax credit against your 2008 return if that will bring you the largest credit amount (depending on your modified adjusted gross income). To do so, you must file an amended return for 2008.
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Economists Call for Bernanke to Stay, Say Recession Is Over

Economists are nearly unanimous that Bernanke should be reappointed to another term as Fed chairman, while most said the recession has ended.
By: PHIL IZZO: WSJ.com
Economists are nearly unanimous that Ben Bernanke should be reappointed to another term as Federal Reserve chairman, and they said there is a 71% chance that President Barack Obama will ask him to stay on, according to a survey.

Meanwhile, the majority of the economists The Wall Street Journal surveyed during the past few days said the recession that began in December 2007 is now over. Battling the downturn defined most of Mr. Bernanke's term, which began in early 2006 and expires in January, and economists say his handling of the crisis has earned him four more years as Fed chief.

"He deserves a lot of credit for stabilizing the financial markets," said Joseph Carson of AllianceBernstein. "Confidence in recovery would be damaged if he was not reappointed."

The Journal surveyed 52 economists; 47 responded.

After months of uncertainty, economists are finally seeing a break in the clouds. Forecasts were revised upward for every period, with 27 economists saying the recession had ended and 11 seeing a trough this month or next. Gross domestic product in the third quarter is now expected to show 2.4% growth at a seasonally adjusted annual rate amid signs of life in the manufacturing sector, partly spurred by inventory adjustments and strong demand for the "cash for clunkers" car-rebate program.

A better-than-expected employment report for July, where employers cut 247,000 jobs and the jobless rate fell for the first time in 15 months, suggests the worst is over. The unemployment rate is still expected to rise to 9.9% by December, but economists forecast that the economy will shed far fewer jobs over the next 12 months than they had forecast last month.

Many of the economists said there is little to be gained by changing the Fed chairman, especially considering the massive task at hand for the central bank as the economy emerges from the recession.

"Continuity is critical as we emerge from this crisis. Otherwise we could slip back in again," said Diane Swonk of Mesirow Financial. "Bernanke is the best suited to undo what has been done when the time comes."

The Fed has taken unprecedented steps in an effort to avoid another Great Depression, and its exit strategy remains a key question. Some hints may emerge as the central bank's August policy meeting comes to an end Wednesday. The Fed's key policy-making tool, the federal-funds rate, isn't likely to change at this meeting or any time soon.

Only six economists expect the Fed to raise the federal-funds rate, now between 0% and 0.25%, this year. Most expect an increase at some point in 2010, but more than a quarter of respondents don't see the rate moving until 2011 or later.

"The exit strategy will be very, very slow and cautious," said John Silvia of Wells Fargo. "The Fed will unwind the balance sheet before they raise the fed funds rates."

The Fed's balance sheet - the total value of all its loans and securities holdings - had more than doubled during the course of the crisis to more than $2 trillion, as lending facilities expanded in an effort to unfreeze credit markets. But as markets get back to normal, demand already has begun to wane, and the balance sheet has started to shrink. Now the composition of the balance sheet has begun to shift to Treasurys, mortgage-backed securities and agency debt as the Fed moves through a $1.75 trillion program announced in March to bring down long-term interest rates.

The Fed is deciding at this week's meeting whether to let that program run its course and how best to communicate its intentions to markets.

Whatever the Fed decides, the economists expressed some confidence that the central bank will be dealing with how to manage a recovery, not another recession. They expect GDP growth to remain above 2% at an annualized rate through the first half of next year, and they put the chances at just 20% of a "double-dip" second downturn before 2010.

But some said a recovery could make Mr. Bernanke's road to reappointment more rocky. "Once it is perceived that the economy is on its way to recovery, it gives Obama the opportunity to put in his own person," Mr. Silvia said. "It could be like Great Britain at the end of World War II. 'Thank you for all the hard work, Mr. Churchill, but we're going to bring someone else in to handle the next phase.'" Former president George W. Bush appointed Mr. Bernanke to succeed the departing Alan Greenspan. Presidents appoint Fed chiefs to four-year terms, and there are no term limits. Mr. Bernanke's term expires Jan. 31.

Though the economists were overwhelmingly supportive of Mr. Bernanke, they don't think his tenure was without mistakes. A slow initial response to the credit squeeze and the decision to let Lehman Brothers fail were cited as the biggest errors.
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6 Real Estate Investment Basics

Miami real estate investor Kenneth D. Rosen outlines his “Big Six” investing guidelines in his new book, Investing in Income Properties.
By: Matthew Haggman: REALTOR®Magazine
Here are his six principles in a nutshell. He says all of them need to be present to make a deal worth doing. “If one’s not there, you stop and you don’t buy,” he says.

Location. “A” locations are in areas where there is little land left to build on and the neighborhood has a certain prestige.

No-frills design with quality construction. He looks for three or four parking spaces per 1,000 square feet, no more than 15 percent of space devoted to common areas, and simple but visually pleasing design.

Few or no vacancies. Buildings with lots of small offices are easier to keep full than those that rely on renting out entire floors to one tenant.

Potential for appreciation. Older buildings with lower rents have the most upside potential. As leases expire, the new owner can raise the rent.

Available financing. Find a financial pro to help negotiate the right provisions.

Sale price based on existing income. Avoid buying based on projected income.
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U.S. Economy: New-Home Sales Climb 11%, Most in Eight Years

Purchases of new homes in the U.S. climbed 11 percent in June, the biggest gain in eight years, underscoring evidence that the deepest housing slump since the Great Depression is starting to stabilize.
By: Courtney Schlisserman and Bob Willis: Bloomberg.com
Sales increased to a 384,000 annual pace, higher than every forecast in a Bloomberg News survey and the most since November, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. The number of houses on the market dropped to the lowest level in more than a decade.

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists said today’s figures signal an end to the slide in home construction and sales. While that means the drag on economic growth will turn to a stimulus in the second half of the year, property values are likely to continue falling and rising unemployment will temper the recovery, analysts said.

“We’re barely past the housing bottom, this thing is still fragile,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York. “It’s not premature to talk about home prices bottoming - it’s somewhere in the next three to six months. There is light at the end of the tunnel.”

Builders’ stocks jumped, with the Standard and Poor’s Supercomposite Homebuilding Index gaining 2.3 percent. The broader S&P 500 Stock Index was up 0.1 percent at 980.35 at 10:10 a.m. in New York. Treasuries, which fell earlier in the day, remained lower, with benchmark 10-year note yields rising to 3.75 percent from 3.66 percent at last week’s close.

Construction Recovers

The Commerce Department earlier this month reported that builders began work on 582,000 residential properties at an annual rate in June, the most since November. Home construction has subtracted from U.S. gross domestic product every quarter since the start of 2006.

The jump in sales signals the U.S. economy is on the way to recovery, said Rebecca Blank, under secretary for economic affairs at the Commerce Department.

“Across the board this is good news,” Blank, formerly a fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said in an interview. “It’s what you would expect to see at the beginning of a recovery.”

Standard Pacific Corp., the U.S. homebuilder that gets most of its revenue from California, is among companies seeing stabilization. It’s net loss, the 11th consecutive drop, narrowed to $23.1 million in the second quarter from $249 million a year earlier, the Irvine, California-based company said last week. Revenue fell 29 percent.

Smaller Losses

“While we still obviously have not achieved the level of profitability that we ultimately need, we are a lot closer than we were a couple of quarters ago and believe that we are in pretty good shape in the short run,” Chief Executive Officer Ken Campbell said in a July 22 statement.

While prices continue to fall, the pace of the decline is easing. The S&P/Case Shiller index of 20 major metropolitan areas tomorrow may show property values fell 17.9 percent in May from a year earlier, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. The measure was down 18.1 percent in the 12 months ended April.

“In terms of residential investment and home sales and housing starts, I think it has” bottomed, said Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs in New York, referring to the housing slump. “We still have a period of declines ahead of us” in prices, he also said.

The decline in prices and a drop in mortgage rates have started to lure buyers even amid the surge in unemployment, which reached a quarter-century high of 9.5 percent in June.

Economists’ Forecasts

Economists had forecast new home sales would rise to a 352,000, according to the median of 62 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 335,000 to 377,000. Commerce revised May’s reading up to a 346,000 rate from a previously reported 342,000.

The median price of a new home decreased 12 percent to $206,200 from $234,300 in June 2008. Last month’s value compares with $219,000 in May.

Builders had 281,000 houses on the market last month, down 4.1 percent from May and the fewest since February 1998. The number of unsold properties fell a record 36 percent from June 2008. It would take 8.8 months to sell all homes at the current sales pace, the lowest level since October 2007.

Foreclosure filings reached a record in the first half of the year, providing competition for homebuilders and pushing down the value of all houses. Also, rising unemployment, which economists forecast will top 10 percent by early 2010, threatens to restrain any recovery in housing.

Fed Efforts

Federal Reserve policy makers have committed to a $1.25 trillion program to purchase securities backed by home loans in an effort to put a floor under the housing market and lower borrowing costs. Those purchases, as well as direct government purchases of Treasuries, drove the rate on 30-year mortgages to a record-low 4.78 percent in April, according to figures from Freddie Mac. Rates have since hovered around 5 percent.

Fed Chairman Bernanke said July 21 that the economy is showing “tentative signs of stabilization” and the “decline in housing activity appears to have moderated.”

Another incentive is the $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers that is part of the Obama administration’s economic stimulus plan. Purchases have to be completed before Dec. 1.
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Energy efficiency incentives likely to grow

An unprecedented push by the U.S. government to widen rewards for energy-conscious homeowners is underway. An example: FHA loans offering 5% larger mortgages to buyers who plan on making renovations.
By: Kenneth R. Harney: latimes.com
You're probably familiar with some of the federal government's incentives for home energy efficiency - heftier tax credits for solar panels, solar water heaters, geothermal heat pumps, heavy-duty insulation, windows, air conditioning and the like.

But these are just the beginning of an unprecedented push by the government that's getting underway for energy conservation in housing.

At the Department of Housing and Urban Development, a new generation of mortgages designed to encourage energy efficiency is being rolled out, starting with Federal Housing Administration loans that offer 5% larger mortgages to people who plan on making energy-efficiency improvements.

For example, if you qualify for a $300,000 FHA mortgage, the FHA might now be able offer you an additional $15,000 if the extra money is used to substantially lower the property's annual energy consumption.

HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan wants the FHA to offer additional incentives. One of the possibilities: Give loan applicants credit on their qualifying incomes for a home loan in exchange for documentable savings in annual energy expenditures.

Meanwhile, the House of Representatives has passed a massive energy conservation and emissions control bill. Though the American Clean Energy and Security Act is better known for its more controversial "cap-and-trade" carbon emissions program, the bill also contains a section devoted to creating incentives for consumers and federal agencies to build and finance energy-efficient dwellings.

Among the key housing-related provisions in the bill:

* The FHA is directed to insure a minimum of 50,000 new energy-efficient mortgages during the coming three years. An energy-efficient house is defined as one in which energy consumption is reduced by 20% following renovations.

* Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are directed to develop mortgage products and more flexible underwriting guidelines to reward energy-conscious borrowers and builders.

The two companies also would be required to help establish a secondary market for energy-efficient and location-efficient mortgages for moderate- and lower-income home buyers. The new generation of loans would increase the qualifying incomes of applicants by at least one dollar for every dollar of projected energy savings from renovations, green construction or efficient design.

Similar concessions on loan applicants' incomes would be extended for properties located in areas close to employment centers or mass transit lines. No concessions would be made for homes in far-flung neighborhoods that eat into family incomes because of long commutes, which would add to carbon emissions.

* Real estate appraisers would be required to take energy improvements and the money they save into account as they value houses. For example, if you spent $30,000 on a series of major upgrades, an appraiser would need to consider the annual cost savings in energy produced and the effect, if any, on market value. States would require licensed appraisers to undergo additional professional training to equip them for their new energy-efficiency valuation responsibilities.

* Federal financial regulators would be directed to support the establishment of privately run "green banking centers" inside banks and credit unions. The centers, which presumably could be unmanned kiosks or staffed offices, would help consumers understand how best to obtain financing for energy-conserving home improvements, second and primary mortgages, and energy audits and ratings.

HUD would also be authorized to conduct "renewable energy home product expos" to educate the public about the latest technologies and financing concepts.

* State governments would be required to ensure that homeowners whose energy technologies allowed them to get "off the grid" - no longer fully dependent on utilities to provide them power - are not denied property hazard coverage by insurance companies.

With all this emphasis on energy efficiency and reduction of real estate-related emissions, is there any evidence that home buyers will take part? Will they use mortgages that encourage energy efficiency or even pay more for houses that are loaded with the latest energy-saving technologies? The jury is out because much of this is prospective and hasn't yet been signed into law.

But maybe there's going to be some extra green in green.

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Home Resales, Leading Index Probably Rose: U.S. Economy Preview

Home resales in the U.S. probably rose in June and a gauge of the economic outlook improved, signaling the recession may soon be over, economists said before reports this week.
By: Shobhana Chandra: Bloomberg.com
Purchases of previously owned homes climbed to an annual rate of 4.83 million, the highest level since October, according to the median of 57 estimates in a Bloomberg survey before the National Association of Realtors’ report on July 23. Figures tomorrow may show the index of leading indicators climbed for a third consecutive month.

Mounting evidence that housing is stabilizing is bolstering forecasts that government stimulus efforts will gain traction in coming months and lift the economy from the worst slump in five decades. Other reports may show rising joblessness is weighing on Americans’ moods, tempering optimism about any rebound.

“The end of the recession could be pretty close,” said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc. in St. Petersburg, Florida. “We’re getting near the bottom in housing. It’ll still be a very gradual recovery for the economy, with a labor market that’s very weak.”

Reports last week corroborated that the housing slump, now in its fourth year, is dissipating. Housing starts unexpectedly jumped in June to the highest level since November as construction of single-family dwellings climbed by the most since 2004. Building permits, indicating future construction, rose the most in a year.

Signs of Stability

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of builder confidence increased this month to the highest level since September.

One reason for the projected increase in home resales is that prospective buyers are taking advantage of the plunge in prices caused by the foreclosure crisis. Filings reached a record in the first half of 2009, according to RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, California-based seller of default data. More than 1.5 million properties got a default or auction notice or were seized by banks in the six months through June.

The New York-based Conference Board’s leading index, which points to the direction of the economy over the next three to six months, rose 0.5 percent last month after a 1.2 percent increase in May, according to the survey median.

The jump in building permits was probably one of the biggest contributors to the predicted gain in the leading index, economists said. Fewer jobless claims and higher stock prices were also likely drivers.

Stocks Rise

Stocks have gained on optimism an economic recovery is at hand. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is up 39 percent since reaching a 12-year low on March 9.

A July 24 report may show the Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment fell in July after four consecutive gains, economists predicted. A preliminary reading dropped to the lowest level since March.

The U.S. has lost about 6.5 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007. Economists in a separate survey taken by Bloomberg this month predicted the jobless rate will reach 10 percent by year-end from 9.5 percent in June.

Federal Reserve officials thought the economy was “still quite weak and vulnerable to further adverse shocks,” according to minutes of their June meeting released last week. Even so, the report also said “the economic contraction was slowing and that the decline in activity could cease before long.”

Companies seeing an improvement include CSX Corp., the third-largest U.S. railroad. Jacksonville, Florida-based CSX reported second-quarter profit that topped analysts’ forecasts, and said demand for hauling most freight is stabilizing. Railroad traffic is considered an economic bellwether.

“We’re seeing pretty good stabilization in our markets,” Chief Executive Officer Michael Ward said in an interview last week. “We don’t see any further deterioration, and we see some incremental improvement in the near future.”



Bloomberg Survey

================================================================
Release Period Prior Median
Indicator Date Value Forecast
================================================================
LEI MOM% 7/20 June 1.2% 0.5%
Initial Claims ,000’s 7/23 18-Jul 522 560
Cont. Claims ,000’s 7/23 11-Jul 6273 6390
Exist Homes Mlns 7/23 June 4.77 4.83
Exist Homes MOM% 7/23 June 2.4% 1.3%
U of Mich Conf. Index 7/24 July F 64.6 65.0
================================================================
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Using the Rout in Housing to Lower Taxes

New Tools Help Owners Get Reduced Valuations; Saving Big in New Jersey
By: M.P. MCQUEEN: WSJ.com
Kim Davidson lives in Bonita, Calif., a San Diego suburb hit hard by tumbling property values. Earlier this year, she made the best of a bad situation and appealed her tax assessment. The county reduced her annual tax bill by more than $1,000 to $3,500.

“I did the whole thing online and walked [my application] down to the mailbox, and a month and a half later, I learned I saved all that money,” says Ms. Davidson, a 44-year-old account manager for a business consulting firm, who purchased the home last year. “It was incredible.”

Tens of thousands of homeowners across the country are trying to wring something positive from an epic real-estate crash. In Cuyahoga County, Ohio, which includes Cleveland, hit hard by rising unemployment and foreclosures, nearly 23,000 property owners applied for property-tax reductions this year, up from an annual average of 1,700. Appeals in California’s Sacramento County soared to 12,000 in 2008 from a typical rate of 1,800 a year earlier.

The number of property owners seeking a tax reduction in Clark County, Nevada, which includes Las Vegas, soared to 6,000 this year from about 1,000 annually in recent years. About three-quarters of those who filed appeals succeeded in having their valuations lowered, most by 30% to 40%, county officials say. The county already had reduced valuations across the board for the vast majority of its residential property owners, says Michele Shafe, assistant director of the Clark County Assessor’s office. She said staffers had to work overtime and Saturdays to keep up with demand for reassessments.

Many of the Nevada appeals came from homeowners in recent developments. “That is where people were paying $400,000 for homes that are now worth maybe $150,000,” Ms. Shafe says.

Many homes nationwide were last appraised prior to the housing crash and are valued for tax purposes at levels higher than today’s home prices. “If you have a three-year period between assessments and the last one was in 2007, your assessment is still at the top of the market,” says Jacqueline Byers, director of research for the National Association of Counties in Washington, D.C.

Homeowners who want to appeal their assessment in many cases can handle the process themselves, although it’s important to be prepared before going in front of an appeals board, tax experts say. People who want help can hire a property-tax consultant or attorney, but should expect to pay a fee, often 25% to 50% of the amount saved in the first year. And enlisting the service of a real-estate appraiser can cost up to several hundred dollars.

There are also a growing number of local and national online services that use automated property-valuation models to help consumers determine whether they may be able to reduce their property taxes. Initial evaluations are often free at these sites, which include EasyTaxFix.com and LowerMyAssessment.com. For a fee of $50 to $100, users can obtain forms with data already filled in and instructions on how to appeal, and a list of recent sales of comparable properties. Ms. Davidson of Bonita used EasyTaxFix.com to help with her appeal.

Such online services may be able to give you a convenient ballpark estimate of whether your home is overassessed. Tax officials say these sites’ results can be supplemented with information from other sources, such as local real-estate agents. Government tax officials also warn that scam artists have been trolling developments in California and elsewhere touting phony property-tax reduction services in direct mailings.

Nick Osnato, a real-estate appraiser in Egg Harbor Township, N.J., says he conducted his own appeal in March and succeeded in getting his tax assessment lowered by $30,000, saving him about $150 a month in property taxes.

“I looked for sales of homes that were the same size as mine, with the same lot, but that had a lower assessment. That’s it,” he says. Mr. Osnato estimates home values in New Jersey are down between 10% and 20% from a year ago, depending on the area.

Winning an appeal mainly requires producing enough evidence to convince the tax assessor or an appeals board that your property assessment is based on inaccurate or outdated information, or is unfairly high compared to similar properties. In some areas, homeowners have as little as two weeks to file a notice of appeal after receiving their tax bill, but 30 to 60 days is more common. That means homeowners have to be ready to scramble when the tax bill comes.

Check on whether you qualify for special property-tax reduction programs such as special exemptions for people age 65 and over. Then, examine property records for inaccuracies, especially square footage. The assessor keeps on file a property record-card that contains your lot number, zoning category, address, sales records, land value and dimensions, as well as significant features as recorded by the town appraiser. Check it closely for errors, including inaccurate descriptions of the property (say, a three-car garage instead of two). Also check whether significant defects like a leaky basement, which could lower the value of the property, are on record. Nowadays, many municipalities put this information online.

While you are at it, check the assessor’s math, particularly with respect to assessment formulas. Some areas use full-market value, replacement value or sales price. Others use a fraction of the market value.

Next, locate three to five comparable properties and check your property against them, making adjustments for differences. Sales data are available from your local government, or a licensed real-estate agent.

“Look for disparities that cannot be explained away, like the age of other properties or better lot configuration, or view. If those things can’t explain why the assessment is so much higher than others, you may have grounds to appeal on equitability,” says Pete Sepp, spokesman for the National Taxpayers Union, an advocacy group.

If you think your property value is unfairly high, your next step is to contact your local assessor. If the property information on record is inaccurate, the assessor may be able to lower your assessment without a formal appeal. But if an appeal before an appeals or equalization board is necessary, you will have to produce evidence to support your complaint. Bring an appraiser’s report, if you have one, and records of comparable sales along with any other supporting documentation, such as photos, a surveyor’s report and contractors’ estimates. If your appeal is turned down, additional appeals usually are heard by a state court.

For more information about how to file an appeal, a brochure is available for $6.95 from the National Taxpayers Union at www.ntu.org.

Experts say there are few drawbacks to applying to reduce your tax assessment. However, if you made additions and improvements to your home that were never properly recorded with your town—usually through a building permit—you might not receive a reduction, and could conceivably face an increased assessment.

Robert Chambers, administrator of the Cuyahoga County Board of Revision, which handles appeals in the Cleveland area, says the most common mistake homeowners make is failing to bring enough evidence about the house.

“Most of the time if a person is denied, it is because of lack of evidence,” Mr. Chambers says. “They say here is a similar bungalow or ranch, but they don’t adjust for age, square footage, etcetera, which is everything that a certified appraiser must do,” he says.

He suggests refraining from using a hearing as a forum to vent your rage at high taxes. “You are filing a legal affidavit that says the auditor’s value is wrong and I have evidence to show you that,” he says.
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