Uncle Sam’s New Guide to Mortgage Shopping

My guess is that the typical American puts more thought into the search for a flat-screen TV than into the choice of a mortgage lender.
By: James R. Hagerty: WSJ.com
Shopping for a TV is fairly straightforward. You read reviews online or in Consumer Reports; you eyeball a few models in the store to see if the image looks sharp; then you buy from whichever merchant has the lowest price. If the TV doesn’t work, the merchant gives you a new one.

Shopping for a mortgage is more complicated, less fun and infinitely more dangerous to your long-term financial interests. At the end of the process, you probably have no idea of whether you got the best deal available. Was the upgrade on those cherry kitchen cabinets really worth the high rate and fees you paid to the lender affiliated with your friendly home builder? Probably not, but that salesman sure was persuasive, and you were glad to be relieved of spending the next three days shopping for mortgages.

Now help is on the way from a most unlikely source: The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, or HUD.

Federal rules that take effect Friday mandate a standard, three-page Good Faith Estimate that urges consumers to shop around for the best loan and helps them compare lenders’ offerings. The rules, announced by HUD in November 2008 but just taking effect this week, are an update of the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act, a 1974 law known as Respa. (See WSJ story.)

One difficulty of shopping for mortgages is that the lender with the lowest rates often isn’t offering the best deal. High fees can wipe out the benefits of low rates, and little-noticed features such as prepayment penalties might blow up on you later on. Even for members of Mensa, it’s hard to compare different combinations or rates, “points” (paid in exchange for a lower rate), fees and other terms. Lenders often sprinkled in lots of confusing charges, such as processing and messenger fees, to pad their margins. Dickering over theses “junk” fees distracted borrowers from the bigger picture of total costs.

All of these complexities favor lenders, of course. The more confused you get, the less likely you are to realize you just got fleeced.

To address those problems, the new estimate form requires lenders to wrap all the fees they control into one “origination charge.” That lets you compare one lender’s fees with another’s. Jack Guttentag, a finance professor emeritus at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, recommends that borrowers focus on two items as they shop: the interest rate and the “adjusted origination charge,” which includes any points paid to lower the rate.

Good Faith Estimates have been around for decades, but there was no standard format. Under the new rules, lenders and mortgage brokers are required to give consumers the standard estimate forms within three days of receiving a loan application.

Lenders aren’t allowed to increase the origination fee from the estimate. Some additional charges, including title services and recording charges, can increase by as much as a combined 10%. Estimates for other charges, such as homeowner’s insurance and other services provided by third parties selected by the borrower, aren’t subject to such limits.

Title insurance typically is the largest fee, and the new forms let consumers know they don’t have to accept the insurer suggested by the lender. Mr. Guttentag says title insurance can be “vastly overpriced” and consumers should take the time to shop for it.

Settlement firms, which organize the closings of home sales, will be required to issue a new version of the HUD-1 form used in closings. This new HUD-1 includes a comparison of the estimated and final costs, as well as a summary of the loan terms.

Will all this make a big difference? Mr. Guttentag, who has been exposing the tricks of lenders and brokers for decades, thinks the new rules will help, though they aren’t a cure-all.

Much depends on whether Americans want to put in a bit of effort rather than simply accept the often biased mortgage advice of a real estate agent, home builder, broker or banker. The real estate agent may urge you to use an affiliate of his firm, or recommend the lender most likely to grant a loan quickly rather than the one with the best terms. The builder wants you to use his in-house lender. The brokers and loan officers are working for themselves, not for you.

When you’re trying to pick a new TV, you don’t rely on a TV manufacturer to give you an impartial review of the alternatives.
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Plan to demolish building on Wilshire Boulevard is opposed by L.A. Conservancy

The conservancy says the 1965 Columbia Savings building at La Brea Avenue is worth saving. Area residents worry that a planned 482-unit apartment and retail complex would add to congestion.
By: Cara Mia DiMassa: latimes.com
The stretch of Wilshire Boulevard between downtown and the Miracle Mile was for decades a center of commerce, with buildings once occupied by such business powerhouses as Union Bank, Texaco, IBM and Getty Oil.

In more recent years, it's been transformed into a residential hub, with a construction boom of mid-rise condo and luxury apartment buildings.

Yet for all of the momentum - more than two dozen residential developments either have been completed or proposed for the corridor - a backlash is now gaining steam, and it's centered on a mid-century former savings and loan building at Wilshire and La Brea Avenue.

The squat building, with a ribboned facade and a stained-glass skylight, is an example of a type of architecture that was prevalent in the years after World War II, when financial institutions pushed for bold buildings to symbolize their own emergence from staid practices and reputations.

Preservationists have joined with some residents in an effort to save the structure, which they consider architecturally significant, a gem of Modernist design that the public has only recently begun to appreciate. They have filed a request with the state of California to give the building landmark status.

Some residents are backing the request, saying the boom in mid-rise apartment complex construction along Wilshire has gone too far.

But the developers say that the building's significance has been overstated and that the neighborhood would be better served with the 482-unit apartment and retail complex they have proposed for the site.

Dale Goldsmith, a land-use attorney representing BRE Properties, the building's owner and developer, said the project "will reflect the demographics of the area."

At a hearing of the Los Angeles City Council's Planning and Land Use Management Committee on Tuesday, Councilman Dennis Zine called the project "well worth it for the community."

The committee approved the developer's plan Tuesday, sending it to the full council for final approval, which is expected as early as later this week.

But that, said Mike Buhler, the Los Angeles Conservancy's director of advocacy, is short-sighted.

He said that the city failed to consider the historical significance of the building and that the developer could put the structure, which is only a portion of the block that BRE wants to develop, to an alternate use such as a restaurant, store or gym rather than demolish it.

"We were surprised that the draft environmental impact report refused to recognize the building's significance in any way," Buhler said.

Should the building be recognized by the state as architecturally significant, the city would have to go back and reconsider that as a part of the environmental impact report. A hearing on the state matter is scheduled for Jan. 29, and the conservancy is asking the city to delay a vote on the Wilshire-La Brea project until after then.

The Columbia Savings building, which opened in 1965, is at the center of the conservancy's "60s turn 50" initiative.

The effort recognizes a class of buildings in Los Angeles from that era whose significance has not been widely acknowledged.

The building, which most recently served as a church, isn't mentioned in the city's definitive architectural guide, and the City Council overturned a recommendation by the city's Cultural Heritage Commission supporting the application for state landmark consideration.

The BRE design for the block, bordered by Wilshire, La Brea, Sycamore Avenue and 8th Street, calls for a public pocket park as well as undulating edges and double rows of trees - all efforts that Goldsmith said were aimed at softening the building's effect on the neighborhood and keeping it from being too monolithic. A previous proposal called for a structure at Wilshire and La Brea to be 17 stories; that was scaled down to seven stories after community objections.

The back-and-forth over the project comes on the heels of a profound change in the Wilshire Corridor, with sleek glass-and-steel towers being added to the cityscape while formerly shuttered office towers have been rehabbed as residences.

Goldsmith said he's worked on five projects in the area, and BRE finished the 5600 Wilshire project, just west of La Brea, earlier this year.

Because Wilshire is considered a transit corridor - with rapid bus lines and Metro stops - and because it's one of the few places in the city where high-rise towers are allowed, many developers see the changes along the boulevard as a symbol of the city's evolution.

The economic slowdown has had little effect on their progress, and longtime residents worry that the growing number of people along the corridor will put added pressure on transportation and infrastructure that is already struggling to keep up.

In a letter to the city planning department, resident Susan Baker objected to what she called "the Manhattanization" of her neighborhood, and she worried that the Wilshire-La Brea project would bring more traffic and noise pollution.

"This entire area is becoming overbuilt with brand-new apartments," Baker wrote. "Who $ay$ we have to have $till more?"

Jim O'Sullivan, president of the Miracle Mile Residents Assn., said he saw residents divided about the Wilshire-La Brea project: Some welcomed the development of the building and the area around it, and others objected to even more construction in their area.

But he said that almost everyone worried what effect the economy would ultimately have on their area. Already, he said, he's noticed that potholes are not fixed as quickly, and streetlights can be out of order for weeks.

"I think at the moment, everybody is just holding their breath with what is going on in the city and elsewhere," O'Sullivan said. "We're trying to figure out what happens next."
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Mortgage Applications in U.S. Increased 2.1% Last Week, MBA Index Shows

Mortgage applications in the U.S. rose last week, led by a gain in purchase applications as mortgage rates approached historic lows.
By: Bob Willis: Bloomberg.com
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of applications to purchase a home or refinance a loan rose 2.1 percent to 613.7 in the week ended Nov. 27 from 601 the prior week.
The group’s gauge of purchases gained 4.1 percent, a second consecutive advance, while its measure of refinancing climbed 1.7 percent.

Cheaper borrowing costs and a tax credit for first-time homebuyers are giving demand a lift and may pave the way for a self-sustaining housing recovery. An unemployment rate that is forecast to exceed 10 percent through the first half of 2010 is one reason why any improvement is likely to be uneven.

“The combination of falling rates, the tax credit extension and improved affordability point toward a rebound in housing demand,” Michael Larson, a housing analyst at Weiss Research in Jupiter, Florida, said before the report. “Purchase applications should enter 2010 with the wind at their back.”

The purchase index rose to 232.3 from the prior week’s 223.1. The measure reached a 12-year low in mid-November. The mortgage bankers’ refinance gauge increased to 2866.4 last week from 2818.7, today’s report showed.

The share of applicants seeking to refinance loans rose to 72.1 percent of total applications last week.

Rates Fall

The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan declined to 4.79 percent last week, the lowest since May, from 4.83 percent, according to the mortgage bankers group. The rate reached 4.61 percent at the end of March, the lowest level since the group’s records began in 1990.

At the current 30-year rate, monthly borrowing costs for each $100,000 of a loan would be $524, or about $43 less than the same week a year earlier, when the rate was 5.48 percent.

The average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage fell to 4.27 percent from 4.32 percent. The rate on a one-year adjustable mortgage declined to 6.56 percent.

President Barack Obama on Nov. 6 extended the deadline for a tax credit of as much as $8,000 for first-time buyers to April 30, and added buyers who have owned a home for at least five years.

The tax credit, together with foreclosure-driven declines in prices and low rates, has helped boost housing sales from record low levels this year.

Mounting Joblessness

Even so, unemployment at a 26-year high is making most people reluctant to buy a home. Tighter credit standards are making it harder to get mortgages for those who want to buy.

Homebuilders, while seeing signs of improvement, remain cautious. Beazer Homes USA Inc. had a 2.4 percent gain in new orders in its fiscal fourth quarter, helping it post its first quarterly profit in three years, the Atlanta-based builder said Nov. 10.

“Elevated unemployment and rising foreclosure activity make it difficult to predict when and to what extent the housing market will sustainably recover,” Chief Executive Officer Ian McCarthy said in the statement.

The Washington-based Mortgage Bankers Association’s loan survey, compiled every week, covers about half of all U.S. retail residential mortgage originations.
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Obama administration pushes to make mortgage modifications permanent

New guidelines follow complaints involving restructured mortgages meant to keep homeowners from foreclosure. Lenders and servicers could face sanctions if requirements are not met.
By: Jim Puzzanghera: latimes.com
The Obama administration today announced a renewed push to get mortgage companies to convert hundreds of thousands of temporarily restructured home loans into permanent ones by the end of the year to help keep struggling homeowners from falling into foreclosure.

As part of its aggressive action, the administration is summoning executives from the nation's top mortgage servicers to Washington next week to prod them to speed up their efforts.

It also is sending what administration officials described as three-person "SWAT teams" to the offices of those firms to help them obtain the necessary documents from borrowers and trouble-shoot problems.

"In our judgment, servicers to date have not done a good enough job in bringing people a permanent modification solution," Assistant Treasury Secretary Michael Barr said.

The administration is hoping to embarrass mortgage servicing companies into doing more to make trial modifications permanent by highlighting those that are not performing well. But it also could levy penalties or other sanctions against laggards based on the agreements they signed to participate in the program.

"Servicers that don't meet their obligations under the program are going to suffer the consequences," Barr warned.

The moves come amid complaints of bureaucratic nightmares from people who have received the short-term reductions in their payments but have been unable to get their servicer to make the changes permanent. The mortgages have been altered under the administration's $75-billion Home Affordable Modification Program, which uses financial incentives to get banks and other mortgage holders to reduce the payments for homeowners who meet certain qualifications.

The program has temporarily modified more than 650,000 mortgages as of Oct. 30, with an average monthly payment reduction of $576. But few of those three-month trials are estimated to have been made permanent. As of Sept. 1, only 1,711 trial modifications had become permanent, according to the oversight panel monitoring the $700-billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. TARP money is used to fund the program.

The Treasury Department, for the first time, will release its own numbers next week. But Barr said the number was "low."

About 375,000 of the trial modifications are eligible to be made permanent by the end of the year. About a third of the homeowners with those temporary reductions have submitted the needed documents, including current income statements, so servicers can decide on permanent modifications, said Phyllis Caldwell, head of the Treasury Department's Homeownership Preservation Office.

"These homeowners, who took the time and effort to complete documentation, deserve a decision by their servicer," she said.

The administration's new plan focuses on increasing accountability by mortgage servicers. The leading mortgage servicers will be required to submit a schedule of their plans to reach a final decision on each loan for which they have the proper documentation and to send the borrower a permanent modification agreement or denial letter.

Many people in the program have complained of a bureaucratic runaround and inability to get a straight answer on their status from their mortgage holder.

Special account liaisons from the Treasury Department and Fannie Mae will be assigned to the eight largest servicers and monitor the progress as frequently as daily. The administration will require those companies to submit twice-daily updates throughout December on their progress. Mortgage servicers that fail to meet standards they agreed to as part of the program "will be subject to consequences, which could include monetary penalties and sanctions," administration officials said.

The administration also is providing new information for homeowners on its website, www.makinghomeaffordable.gov, including links to lists of documents and a new instructional video, to help them get their trial modification made permanent.
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Guidelines Aim to Ease Short Sales

The Obama administration laid out final guidelines on Monday that should make it easier for some financially troubled borrowers to sell their homes.
By: RUTH SIMON: WSJ.com
The guidelines are designed to encourage the use of short sales, transactions in which the borrower with lender approval sells the home for less than what is owed on the loan.
The program also makes it easier for borrowers to voluntarily transfer ownership of properties through a "deed in lieu of foreclosure."

Short sales can result in higher prices than foreclosures and can be less damaging to local neighborhoods, in part because homes aren't left vacant and exposed to vandalism. But these transactions are often difficult to complete.

Under the plan, borrowers will receive $1,500 from the government if they sell their homes for less than the amount of their mortgages. Mortgage-servicing companies will also receive $1,000 for each completed short sale. The program is open to borrowers who may be eligible for the government's loan-modification program, but don't end up qualifying, or are delinquent on their modification, or request a short sale or deed-in-lieu transaction.

The short-sale program is the latest addition to the Obama administration's $75 billion foreclosure-prevention plan, which includes incentives for mortgage companies and investors to rework troubled loans. The government first said in May that it would include short sales in the program, but it has taken months to finalize the details.

Under the new guidelines, second-mortgage holders can receive up to $3,000 of the sales proceeds in exchange for releasing their liens. Investors who hold the first mortgages, meanwhile, can collect up to $1,000 from the government for allowing such payments.

Borrowers who complete a short sale under the program must be "fully released" from future liability for the debt, according to the guidelines.
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Give a Home for the Holidays

Tired of the offerings at the mall? Consider giving your children something grander, like the gift of a down payment to buy a home—or even a home itself. Uncle Sam encourages such generosity.
By: JUNE FLETCHER: WSJ.com
'Tis the season of giving. But if you're tired of the offerings at the mall, why not consider giving your children something grander, like the gift of a down payment to buy a home—or even a home itself?

Uncle Sam encourages such generosity, at least within limits (the IRS site has details). You and your spouse are each allowed to give gifts of $13,000 of money or property to as many people as you want, without triggering taxes for you or the recipients. If you give more than this amount to any one person, the excess counts, dollar for dollar, against your $1 million lifetime gift-tax exclusion ($2 million for married couples).

So if you and your spouse wanted to give $50,000 to your son for a down payment on a house, together you could gift him $26,000 this year, and $24,000 next year, tax-free.

This gift could help him qualify to buy a home before the federal government's tax credit stimulus expires early next summer. If the gift allows him to make a down payment of 20% or more of the sales price, he'd also avoid having to pay private mortgage insurance.

Or, if you are interested in selling your home to your child, you could gift some of the equity in the home rather than cash. Lenders usually will accept such a gift, but may require two appraisals to make sure that the home is really worth the sales price, and will ask you to sign an affidavit affirming that you are giving a gift and don't expect repayment.

Alternatively, you could finance your deposit-poor child's second mortgage. Then you and your spouse could each give $13,000 to your child, and an equivalent amount to the child's spouse, until the loan is paid off. Or you could transfer a percentage of interest in the property each year, up to $13,000 per person, until the property belongs to your child.

It may make sense to give more than the tax-free limit each year if you think you'll be subject to the estate tax, which kicks in for those worth more than $3.5 million when you die (or $7 million for married couples), according to San Diego certified public accountant Michael Fitzsimmons. That's because if you live more than three years after the date of the gift, any appreciation on the property, plus the original value of the gift, escapes estate taxes.

What if you want to gift a property that has decreased in value since you purchased it? Not so uncommon in these post-bubble times. If you own a rental property that has dropped in value, Mr. Fitzsimmons says that it's better to sell it and take a tax loss than to gift it, since neither a donor nor a recipient can deduct a tax loss on a decrease in value that happened before the date of the gift. Losses on primary and vacation homes are non-deductible.

And what if the mortgage on the property exceeds the home's current value? It's possible to give such a property away, but according to Jenkintown, Pa., certified public accountant Michael Solomon, most lenders wouldn't allow ownership to be transferred unless the recipient was in as good or better financial shape than the donor—and might also require that the donor remain on the mortgage. Meanwhile, if you're asked to take on a home that's underwater, remember that you can't return it if it doesn't fit your lifestyle. "Declining the gift does make sense," says Mr. Solomon.
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Sales of existing homes surge 10.1% in October

Even as builders pulled back their construction of new homes in October, buyers snapped up previously owned properties at the briskest pace in more than two years, a national organization said this morning.
By: Alejandro Lazo: latimes.com
The National Assn. of Realtors in Washington said sales of previously owned homes increased 10.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.1 million units in October from a downwardly revised pace of 5.54 million in September.
That is up 23.5% from the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.94 million units in October 2008. The last time the sales pace was that swift was in February 2007.

The buying - motivated by low interest rates, cheap housing and a credit for first-time buyers - pushed housing inventory at the end of October down 3.7% to 3.57 million existing homes available for sale, which represented a seven-month supply at the current sales pace, according to the Realtors group.

“The supply of homes on the market is now at the lowest level in over 2 1/2 years - we’re getting closer to a general balance between buyers and sellers,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the group, said in a statement.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $173,100 in October, down 7.1% from October 2008. Distressed properties accounted for 30% of sales in October.

In the West, which includes California, sales of previously owned homes increased 1.6% to an annual rate of 1.31 million in October and are 12% above a year ago. The median price in the West was $220,200, which is 14.7% below October 2008. It was the weakest performance for both sales and housing price improvement among the four national regions.

While a rush of first-time buyers to use the credit ahead of its initial Nov. 30 tax credit helped boost sales in October some economists are predicting a drop-off in sales in the winter months despite the credit’s extension and expansion earlier this month.

In a note to clients this morning Patrick Newport, U.S. economist for IHS Global Insight, predicted that given that the Mortgage Bankers Association's purchase Index - a measure of mortgage loan application volume - dropped to its lowest level in 12 years in its most recent release, a December sales plunge is likely.

“This surge may last one more month,” Newport wrote.
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New Tax Credits Benefit Both First Time Buyers and Current Homeowners

Closing deadline extended to June 30, repeat buyers offered up to $6,500
By: Annalisa Burgos: FrontDoor.com
First time homebuyers aren't the only ones who can claim a tax credit when they purchase a home. Now current homeowners can take advantage of the tax break too, if they qualify.

President Barack Obama signed into law a $24 billion economic stimulus bill on Friday, which includes an extension and expansion of the popular first time homebuyer tax credit. It was set to expire on Nov. 30. Prospective buyers now have until June 30, 2010, to close on their purchase and will need to submit documentation with their tax returns to claim the credit. The new program is estimated to cost $11 billion. Here are the details:

FIRST TIME BUYERS

Credit: Equal to 10 percent of the home's purchase price, up to $8,000

Who Qualifies:

    •Those who haven't owned property in the last three years

    •Those with income up to $225,000 for couples and $125,000 for individuals
     (credit phases out for people who make more than these amounts)

    •Must be at least 18 years of age to claim credit

    •Purchase price must be $800,000 or less

Deadlines:

    •Have until April 30, 2010, to enter into contract for a home purchase

    •Have until June 30, 2010, to close on the purchase

CURRENT HOMEOWNERS

Credit: Equal to 10 percent of the home's purchase price, up to $6,500

Who Qualifies:

    •Those who have owned and lived in their principal residence for at least five
     consecutive years during the past eight years

    •Those with income up to $225,000 for couples and $125,000 for individuals
     (credit phases out for people who make more than these amounts)

    •Must be at least 18 years of age to claim credit

    •Purchase price must be $800,000 or less

Deadlines:

    •Have until April 30, 2010, to enter into contract for a home purchase

    •Have until June 30, 2010, to close on the purchase

In addition, buyers have another year to take advantage of the higher loan limit for mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration, Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac - set at 125 percent of local median home sales prices, up to a maximum of $729,750 in high-cost housing markets. The limit in normal markets will remain $271,050 for FHA and $417,000 for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

What this all means is that many more buyers qualify for a tax credit. So what are you waiting for? If you're even remotely considering buying a home, now's the time to do it. Don't let the first time buyers have all the fun.
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First-Time Homebuyers Buoy Real Estate Market

The housing market is getting a much-needed boost as first-time homebuyers rush to take advantage of an $8,000 federal tax credit that is set to expire Nov. 30, 2009.
By: David Bracken: RISMEDIA
The incentive is helping to slow the decline in home sales. In August, sales were down 1% over the comparable period last year, the smallest year-over-year decline in any month since late 2007. As Congress considers extending the credit, real-estate agents and home builders worry sales could slump again if it's allowed to expire.

A full accounting of the program’s popularity won’t be available for several months, but brokers say first-time buyers have been driving much of the activity in the market in recent months, especially for cheaper homes.

Kelly Cobb, a broker with Fonville Morisey Realty in Cary, North Carolina, said four of the six listings her office put under contract in the last month involved first-time buyers. Cobb said that as the deadline gets closer, she’s seeing more lower-end homes with multiple offers on them. “It has really, really fueled our market,” she said. “I think anybody who waited until now is going to pay top dollar.”

In order to qualify for the tax credit, a buyer must close on their property by Nov. 30. Brokers say in most cases that gives potential buyers about five more weeks to begin the closing process. The tax credit has been available since the start of the year, and for many families it has been too good to pass up. Terri Hutter and her husband, Fred Neumann, had been repaying credit-card debt and trying to build up savings in recent years. Hutter said the couple originally planned to continue renting for a year or two longer. “With that deadline I’m like, ‘Oh, let’s do it,’” said Hutter, who runs the culinary job training program for the Inter-Faith Food Shuttle. Hutter and Neumann expect to close Oct. 9 on a 1,360-square-foot home in Durham, N.C. The couple paid the listing price of $145,000 for the house and got a 30-year mortgage at a 4.875% interest rate.

Albert Blackmon and his fiancee, Rachel Blair also expected to wait a few years before buying a home. But Blackmon, who works as a Web developer in Apex, N.C., said the tax credit put buying a home within reach. The couple got a U.S. Department of Agriculture Rural Development loan with a 5% interest rate that required no money down. They paid $134,500 for a 1,250-square-foot home in Clayton, N.C. “We’re basically borrowing some money from some family members interest free, and when the credit comes back, we’re going to pay them right back and we have some instant equity in the house,” Blackmon said.

Those hoping to take advantage of the tax credit will need to have their financial house in order, as skittish lenders are closely scrutinizing a potential borrower’s credit and income history.

Tom Simon and his fiancee Tera Caldwell recently used the tax credit to purchase a home near downtown Raleigh. Simon admitted that getting financing was a long process, but he said that made him more confident that the couple could realistically afford the $193,000 house they ended up buying. Simon said the tax credit was not the deciding factor in the couple’s buying a home, but it did make them start seriously looking for a house sooner than they would have otherwise.

There’s still a chance that Congress could extend the tax credit in its current form or amend it. Some lawmakers worry about the program’s cost, which may hit an estimated $15 billion, more than double the amount projected in February’s economic stimulus bill, according to the Associated Press. Critics of the program also say it is artificially inflating demand at the expense of the taxpayer. “I would argue that it has the same effect of manipulating the real estate market that we’ve had with some other problems,” said Dallas Woodhouse, state director for the conservative group Americans for Prosperity. “There will be a day of reckoning for that.”

If the program is allowed to expire, real estate professionals will be watching closely to see what happens to home sales after it’s gone. George Pittman, CEO of Ammons Pittman GMAC Real Estate in Raleigh, said increased sales of lower-priced homes have not translated into more sales at the higher prices. Pittman said he would normally expect those selling $150,000 homes to then buy more expensive homes. “The thing we’re trying to figure out is why it is not snowballing up,” Pittman said. “It’s had some impact, but the upper end is still a bit soft right now.”

The tax credits have already had an effect on new home construction. As the inventory of modestly priced homes shrinks, builders are able to convince lenders that there is a need to replace them. The average cost of homes built in Wake County, N.C., was $165,000 in July, down from $195,000 during the same month a year ago, according the Home Builders Association of Raleigh-Wake County. There’s also been a spike in the number of building permits issued in Wake County in recent months. Tom Anhut, a division president in Raleigh for Toll Brothers home builders, said he believes the increase is a result of builders rushing to get homes finished by the end of November. “I think that there is a demonstrable increase in construction activity at the lower end right now because of that,” he said.

Tim Minton, executive vice president of the Home Builders Association of Raleigh-Wake County, said there’s no question the credit has helped stabilize a volatile market. “The question is, from a long-term standpoint, at some point that spigot does have to be turned off,” he said.
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Worried Mortgage Rates Will Rise? You Have Options

Prospective home buyers can protect themselves from an interest rate spike by investing in a mutual fund that tracks rates, or buying options on one of those funds, writes Brett Arends.
By: Brett Arends: WSJ.com
Good news for prospective home buyers: You can find 30-year mortgages for less than 5% again. But those rates may not last . And these days it's almost impossible to lock in a rate while you hunt for a home. Banks—for understandable reasons—now want to evaluate a property before pre-approving borrowers.

Mortgage rates have been falling in concert with sinking interest rates on long-term Treasury bonds. The two are closely related, through a complex mechanism involving mortgage-based securities. And if mortgage rates start rocketing again in the next few months, a rebound in long-term Treasury yields will likely be the cause.

People who worry that rates will spike again before they find a home can protect themselves by investing in a mutual fund that tracks long-term interest rates. Or they can buy call options on one of those funds instead. If Treasury rates suddenly skyrocket, you may make back what you would lose on the mortgage rates.

This may sound like some incredibly complex footwork, and most people will shy away from trying these moves. But considering the cost of even a slight rate change over the life of a mortgage, they're worth considering.

After all, if you're looking to buy a typical $200,000 home, a rise in mortgage rates from 5% to 6% will cost you an extra $1,300 a year for the next 30 years.

Several funds track long-term interest rates. Among them are two exchange-traded funds that you buy like shares on the stock market, the ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury fund (TBF) and the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury fund (TBT). There is also the Rydex Inverse Government Long Bond Strategy mutual fund (RYJUX). (Technically, these funds track the inverse of the price of long-term government bonds, which in turn is inversely related to the yield.)

These funds come with risks. The two exchange-traded funds, TBF and TBT, are specifically designed to track daily moves in the long-term bond market rather than long-term moves. The TBT is particularly volatile because it is what is known as an "Ultra" fund—it will give you double the market move, up or down. The drawback: If rates fall further while you are house hunting, you will save extra money on your mortgage —but you'd lose money on these funds.

That's why the options market looks especially interesting.

You can purchase call options on the TBT fund. These calls wager that the $4 billion fund will see a sharp rise in share price in the next few months, and could operate like a form of insurance if mortgage rates suddenly spike during your real-estate search.

Here's how it works: Today, with 30-year Treasury rates at just 4%, the TBT is about $44 a share. But for $1.20 a share you could buy a $50 call option on the fund, good for any time between now and January. That would simply give you the right to buy the TBT at $50 between then and now. So if long-term interest rates were to skyrocket over the next few months, and the TBT soared to, say, $60, you'd pocket a profit of $10 a share (less the $1.20 in costs for the option).

Because the TBT tracks daily performance, there is no absolute way of knowing what long-term Treasury rate would correspond to any given price on the TBT. But the fund was about $59 in June.

Issues like compliance and complexity probably deter most financial intermediaries from offering any such product. That's a shame, because an options hedge could be very useful to a lot of middle-class Americans.

No strategy can offer perfect protection against mortgage rates: it's a work-around, based upon derivatives of derivatives of the Treasury market. But anyone who thinks or fears that long-term interest rates will rise dramatically in the next few months might look at buying call options on the TBT.
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Real Estate Outlook: Recession is Over

Now it's official. The chairman of the Federal Reserve Board himself has said it publicly that it looks like the recession is over.
By: Kenneth R. Harney: RealtyTimes.com
Here comes the recovery.

But there was a big footnote in Bernanke's speech on the economy last week in Washington: Don't look for a dramatic recovery.

It'll be more like a slow moving, plodding sort of improvement where the economy inches toward expansion. But there'll be no sudden, splashy return to economic boomtime anytime soon.

Bernanke's point about the end of the recession was underscored by a 2.7 percent jump in retail sales for the month of August, according to the Commerce Department.

That's an important indicator because the key to pumping up the economy again is to get consumers spending, and that appears to be happening. Not just for auto sales, which got a big boost in August from the government's "cash for clunkers" program, but also for other key categories, like food and clothing purchases, department store retail, entertainment and restaurant spending, sporting goods.

They were all up for the month, after having been mainly down for well over a year.

One reason for the pick-up in consumer spending: People feel more confident about the direction of the economy in the months ahead. They see the stock market up, so their retirement funds and 401 K plans are bouncing back.

They see home values stabilizing or growing in most areas, so their equity is beginning to increase again.

The one big negative - and it's definitely a drag for housing - is the unemployment rate, which Mr. Bernanke said won't be coming down fast, even with the end of the recession.

Nonetheless, the vast majority of Americans who do have jobs have seen their real wages rise this year, up five percent. That's the largest annual gain in fifty years.

All of this is feeding into the housing sector in key markets, such as southern California, where August sales were up 11 percent compared with the year before, according to MDA DataQuick. Even prices are rising slightly.

In the combined markets of Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange County, San Bernadino-Riverside and Ventura, the median price of homes sold gained 2.6 percent in August, which is very encouraging for one of the hardest-hit boom-to-bust areas of the country.

Meanwhile, the mortgage market continues to be exceptionally positive for housing sales and values: 30 year fixed rates averaged just above 5 percent last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, and 15 year loans averaged 4.4 percent.
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Housing Seems Set to Aid Economy a Bit

After facilitating the economy's downfall, the housing sector will soon start helping its recovery, though probably not by much.
By: MARK GONGLOFF: WSJ.com
Census Bureau data on August housing starts are due Thursday morning. Economists think starts rose 3.3% from June to an annualized rate of 600,000 units, the fastest pace since November 2008.

A tentative recovery in home construction might be enough to boost annualized gross-domestic-product growth by as much as 0.5 percentage point, according to some estimates, perhaps as soon as this quarter.

That would be an impressive turn of events. Collapsing residential construction slashed nearly one percentage point, on average, from GDP growth for the past 3½ years in a row.

That starts are gaining ground might seem quizzical, as there is still an oversupply of housing on the market, including a large "shadow" inventory of homes that will eventually enter foreclosure or that are being held off the market while their owners wait for prices to recover.

But many unsold homes might be too large for the first-time buyers that have boosted the market in recent months, spurred by government tax credits, suggests Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. Home builders can make smaller houses to meet that demand.

Still, there are limits to how much activity is likely to be seen. Builders remain cautious. Though their sentiment has improved, it is still near record lows, according to the latest survey by the National Association of Home Builders.

August's expected gain would still leave starts down 29% from a year ago and down 74% from the 2.27 million-unit record pace set in January 2006, at the height of the bubble.

Goldman Sachs economists, weighing population growth, inventory and still-high home-vacancy rates, estimate there might be just 850,000 housing starts in 2010 - roughly the pace before the Lehman Brothers collapse a year ago.

That suggests there mightn't be much more juice in home-builder stocks. The Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Total Stock Market Index has more than doubled from its November bottom and is near pre-Lehman levels.

It also suggests housing's contribution to GDP will be minimal.

Still, it's a start.
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Housing Starts in U.S. Climb to Nine-Month High

Builders in the U.S. broke ground in August on the most houses in nine months, led by a jump in multifamily dwellings that overshadowed a decrease in construction of single-family homes.
By: Bob Willis: Bloomberg.com
Housing starts rose 1.5 percent to an annual rate of 598,000, as anticipated, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington.
Single-family projects dropped 3 percent, the first decrease since January, while work began on 25 percent more multifamily units, such as apartments.

Builders may be pulling back as the expiration of the government’s tax credit for first-time buyers nears. The incentive, plus foreclosure-driven declines in prices, helped boost sales in recent months, and companies may not want to be caught with excess supply should the program fail to be extended.

“These tax incentives often borrow from future sales and the pickup does not last,” Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, said before the report. “This does not throw the recovery idea into a tailspin, but the housing normalization will come at a slow, measured pace.”

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index were down 0.1 percent to 1,062.60 at 8:39 a.m. in New York after rising as much as 0.6 percent.

Jobless Claims

A separate report today from the Labor Department showed that the number of Americans filing first-time claims for jobless benefits fell unexpectedly last week, a sign the labor market is deteriorating at a slower pace as the economy pulls out of the recession.

Applications dropped by 12,000 to 545,000 in the week ended Sept. 12, from a revised 557,000 the week before. The total number of people collecting unemployment insurance rose the prior week.

Starts were projected to rise to a 598,000 annual pace from a 581,000 rate initially reported for July, according to the median forecast of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from 570,000 to 640,000.

Permits, a sign of future construction, climbed 2.7 percent to a 579,000 annual rate in August, also led by an increase in multifamily. They were projected to rise to 583,000, economists forecast.

Construction of single-family houses, which account for about 85 percent of the industry, fell 3 percent to a 479,000 rate, the first decline since January. Work on multi-family units, which make up the rest of the market and is often volatile, jumped 25 percent to a 119,000 rate.

Gains in Northeast

The increase in starts was led by a 24 percent increase in the Northeast. They rose 0.9 percent in the Midwest, and fell 2.4 percent in the South. The West was little changed.

Volatility in multifamily projects has obscured the underlying improvement in residential building. Construction of apartments and condominiums surged 56 percent in May only to slump by 21 percent and 15 percent the next two months.

Americans are taking advantage of the Obama administration’s $8,000 tax credits for first-time buyers that expires at the end of November. Those with jobs, cash to make down payments and good credit scores are picking up bargains as record foreclosures have driven down home prices by about 32 percent from their peaks in mid-2006, according to the S&P/Case- Shiller index.

Combined sales of new and existing homes rose in the four months though July.

A report yesterday showed gains in sales and buyer traffic pushed builder confidence this month to its highest level since May 2008.

Toll Brothers

Luxury builder Toll Brothers Inc. is among companies that see demand improving, even as losses mount.

“In the last six months, we see a pretty significant change in some markets,” Chief Executive Officer Robert Toll said in an interview Aug. 27 with Bloomberg Television. “People are now concerned with missing the market.”
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L.A. Buyers Flock to Low-End and Luxury Homes

L.A. homebuyers went to extremes in August, boosting sales in the high- and low-price ranges.
HOUSING: August sales up 45 percent year to year and 5 percent from July.
By: HOWARD FINE: Los Angeles Business Journal.com
People are buying homes again in L.A. County, and not just cheap foreclosed properties: They’re buying at the upper end, too.

Convinced that prices are near the bottom, and drawn by low interest rates and impending deadlines for federal and state tax credits, first-time homebuyers and bargain hunters continued their return to the market, often getting into bidding wars over foreclosed and bargain-rate properties, especially condominiums.

Meanwhile, banks have finally eased the reins a bit for jumbo loans, allowing buyers to step in at the upper end, boosting sales in luxury areas like Calabasas, Manhattan Beach and Palos Verdes Estates.

These trends are evident in the August new and existing residential sales data for Los Angeles County from HomeData Corp. of Hicksville, N.Y. Home sales jumped 45 percent from August 2008 and August 2009, and were even up 5 percent from July levels.

Meanwhile, the median home price held steady at $330,000 between July and August. Also noteworthy: The rate of year-over-year decline is slowing: Between August 2008 and August 2009, the price dropped 18 percent, compared with a 30 percent drop between August 2007 and August 2008.

“We’re either at or near the bottom,” said economist Chris Thornberg, a principal with Beacon Economics in West Los Angeles and a close observer of L.A.’s real estate markets.

The biggest beneficiary has been the condo market, where sales surged 55 percent between August 2008 and August 2009.

What’s more, condo prices posted a 7 percent gain between July and August, hitting $320,000, the highest level since November. The August numbers show a 16 percent decline in year-over-year condo prices.

A federal tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time homebuyers runs through November, while a state tax credit of up to $10,000 just expired this past week for purchases of new homes and condominiums. These credits – combined with mortgage interest rates in the 4 percent to 5 percent range for 30-year fixed-rate loans less than $417,000 – have spurred many buyers who had been sitting on the sidelines during the housing market meltdown.

This has boosted sales in the county’s urban core, with communities such as El Sereno and Exposition Park recording year-over-year sales jumps of 200 percent or more. Many of the county’s suburban markets, including Mission Hills, Pomona and West Covina, saw sales volumes double between August 2008 and August 2009.

Yet sales are also hopping in many areas at the opposite end of the price spectrum. Several ZIP codes with median home prices exceeding $1 million saw their sales volumes increase by more than 100 percent over the past year, including areas of Calabasas, the Hollywood Hills, Manhattan Beach and Palos Verdes Estates.

“The prices have finally dropped enough to where buyers are stepping in and the banks are doing better at making loans,” said Syd Leibovitch, owner of Rodeo Realty in Beverly Hills.

Leibovitch said few banks were making jumbo loans of more than $730,000 earlier this year, and the few that were required down payments of 50 percent or more and were charging interest rates of 8 percent or 9 percent.

“Now, with the price coming down and the interest rates more like 5.5 percent, a home that was on the market for $3 million six months ago is now being sold for, say, $2.2 million,” he said.

Tightening supply

In Manhattan Beach, tightening supply is also an issue. Six months ago, there were seven months’ worth of unsold homes on the market. Today, that figure has been cut in half, said Steve Goddard, broker-manager for ReMax Marquee Partners in Manhattan Beach and president-elect of the California Association of Realtors.

In Long Beach, the supply of residential units is so tight that one brokerage house has started sending out mailers to see if residents would be willing to sell their homes.

“We’re actually doing mailings into certain areas of Long Beach inquiring if anyone is looking to sell,” said Phil Jones, managing partner of the Coldwell Banker Coastal Alliance, which has three offices in Long Beach. “This has been very surprising; a few months ago, we would never have dreamed of this situation.”

Yet despite all these encouraging signs, few are willing to say the local housing market is in recovery mode.

“The real estate market is now bouncing along the bottom,” Goddard said.

Looming over everything is the huge number of foreclosures, both current and expected. As has been the case for the past year, many of the bargain properties now on the market are foreclosures.

But nearly everyone expects thousands of new foreclosures to be dumped into the L.A. market in coming months now that a federal moratorium on foreclosures has been lifted.

“This halting, temporary recovery we’re seeing right now could be cut short by future foreclosures coming onto the market,” said Joe Breckner, sales associate with Coldwell Banker of Studio City.

Also in question is the impact that the expiration of the federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers in November will have on the market.

“It’s like the Cash for Clunkers program,” said Stephen Cauley, director of research at the Ziman Center for Real Estate at UCLA. “It was very good while it lasted, but what it ended up doing was stealing sales from the future.”
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